Regular Season - 14 · 15 November 2026, 17:30 UTC

Eldense vs Sabadell Segunda División prediction

Nuevo Pepico Amat, Alicante

Referee: Ojaos Valera, Alejandro

Our model says: Eldense 0–1 Sabadell

The model makes it 33% Eldense, 33% draw, 34% Sabadell — fair odds of 3.03, 3.03 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Eldense 0.95, Sabadell 0.96.

Both teams to score: 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 30%, under 2.5: 70%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.

A tight game: Eldense and Sabadell are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.

Published 1 November 2026 · updated 15 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Eldense's rating is built from 13 Segunda División matches and Sabadell's from 13, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,082 matches.

Key facts

Eldense are 16th on 14 points from 13 games; Sabadell are 13th on 18 points from 13 games — Segunda División.
Eldense are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Las Palmas.
Sabadell are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Real Sociedad II.
Last 4 meetings: Eldense 3 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 7 February 2026, ended Eldense 2–1 Sabadell.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Eldense vs Sabadell

38%

Both teams to score

30%

Over 2.5 goals

70%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Eldense win Draw Sabadell win

0–016%
1–114%
0–114%
1–013%
0–27%
2–07%
1–26%

Scores read Eldense first; the other scorelines share the remaining 23%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Sabadell at 34%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Eldense vs Sabadell

Eldense

Segunda División

L0-2away to Las Palmas9 November 2026
L0-2Granada CF1 November 2026
L0-2away to Albacete25 October 2026
W3-2away to Valladolid18 October 2026
W2-1Cordoba10 October 2026

Sabadell

Segunda División

D0-0Real Sociedad II9 November 2026
L1-2away to Albacete31 October 2026
D1-1Tenerife25 October 2026
L0-1away to Burgos18 October 2026
W2-1away to AD Ceuta FC10 October 2026

What these results say

Eldense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Sabadell failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Sabadell conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
16	Eldense	13	4	2	7	13	19	-6	14
13	Sabadell	13	4	6	3	12	11	+1	18

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Eldense

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 33% today

Win 26%

Draw 34%

Defeat 39%

Sabadell

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 5% today

Win 2%

Draw 4%

Defeat 6%

From our Segunda División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Eldense vs Sabadell

7 February 2026Eldense 2–1 SabadellPrimera División RFEF - Group 2
30 August 2025Sabadell 0–0 EldensePrimera División RFEF - Group 2
19 February 2023Eldense 1–0 SabadellPrimera División RFEF - Group 2
9 October 2022Sabadell 1–3 EldensePrimera División RFEF - Group 2

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Eldense a 0% chance of the title and Sabadell 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Eldense v Sabadell has moved

First published on 1 Nov at 38% / 31% / 31% (home / draw / away). After 8 updates it reads 33% / 33% / 34%: the biggest move is Eldense's chance of winning, down 5 points.

Eldense win33%▼ −5
Draw33%▲ +2
Sabadell win34%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Eldense Sabadell

0.59 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.54

1.47 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.04

0.95 Model expected goals (this match) 0.96

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Sabadell the highest probability at 34%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Eldense against 0.96 for Sabadell. Eldense's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.04 for Sabadell.

Eldense carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.56 for Sabadell.

How the model reaches 34% for Sabadell to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sabadell to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Eldense's ratings add 4 points and Sabadell's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 34%.

Two average sides, neutral ground36%
Home advantage30%−6
Both sides at this match's level28%−2
Eldense's ratings32%+4
Sabadell's ratings34%+2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

EldenseModelSabadell

Over 1.5 goals

70%

7 of 10 games

58%

model, this match

70%

7 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

40%

4 of 10 games

30%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

20%

2 of 10 games

13%

model, this match

20%

2 of 10 games

Both teams score

40%

4 of 10 games

38%

model, this match

60%

6 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

EldenseSabadell

13Matches13

4W 2D 7LRecord4W 6D 3L

13 1.0 per gameGoals scored12 0.9 per game

19 1.5 per gameGoals conceded11 0.8 per game

2 of 13Clean sheets5 of 13

7 of 13Failed to score6 of 13

3 of 3Penalties scored1 of 2

36 2.8 per gameYellow cards39 3.0 per game

0Red cards1

4-2-3-1 9×Usual shape4-4-2 6×

Eldense at home · Sabadell away

6Played7

2W 2D 2LRecord1W 3D 3L

9–8Goals for – against4–7

1 of 6Clean sheets2 of 7

League matches only, Segunda División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Segunda División matches this season: Eldense 13, Sabadell 13.

Eldense scored 001334

Sabadell conceded 220221

Eldense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Sabadell have let in 1 there.

Sabadell scored 332204

Eldense conceded 334222

Sabadell score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Eldense have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Eldense

at Castellón21 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 14%
vs Girona29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 26%
at Tenerife6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 26%
vs FC Andorra13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 37%
at Celta de Vigo II20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 29%

Sabadell

vs Granada CF21 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 38%
at Leganes29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 36%
vs Eibar6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 33%
at Cadiz13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 35%
vs Las Palmas20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 40%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.