Regular Season - 14 · 15 November 2026, 15:15 UTC

Granada CF vs Las Palmas Segunda División prediction

Nuevo Los Cármenes, Granada

Referee: Miranda Bolano Daniel

Our model says: Granada CF 2–1 Las Palmas

The model makes it 45% Granada CF, 27% draw, 28% Las Palmas — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Granada CF 1.65, Las Palmas 1.19.

Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Published 1 November 2026 · updated 15 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Granada CF's rating is built from 54 Segunda División matches and Las Palmas's from 57, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,082 matches.

Key facts

Granada CF are 7th on 23 points from 12 games; Las Palmas are 11th on 20 points from 13 games — Segunda División.
Granada CF are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Eldense.
Las Palmas are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Eldense.
Last 6 meetings: Las Palmas 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 2 April 2026, ended Las Palmas 2–0 Granada CF.

More Segunda División predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Granada CF vs Las Palmas

57%

Both teams to score

54%

Over 2.5 goals

46%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Granada CF win Draw Las Palmas win

1–112%
2–19%
1–09%
2–08%
1–27%
0–06%
0–16%

Scores read Granada CF first; the other scorelines share the remaining 42%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Granada CF at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Granada CF vs Las Palmas

Granada CF

Segunda División

W2-0away to Eldense1 November 2026
W2-1Valladolid23 October 2026
W2-0Cadiz18 October 2026
W1-0away to Burgos12 October 2026
W3-2away to Real Sociedad II4 October 2026

Las Palmas

Segunda División

W2-0Eldense9 November 2026
W3-2away to Oviedo2 November 2026
W1-0Real Sociedad II24 October 2026
L0-3Castellón17 October 2026
L1-3away to Mallorca11 October 2026

What these results say

Granada CF won every one of these 5 matches.
Granada CF scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Las Palmas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
7	Granada CF	12	7	2	3	20	14	+6	23
11	Las Palmas	13	6	2	5	19	21	-2	20

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Granada CF

Chance to finish in the top two · 8% today

Win 10%

Draw 7%

Defeat 5%

From our Segunda División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Granada CF vs Las Palmas

2 April 2026Las Palmas 2–0 Granada CFSegunda División
10 October 2025Granada CF 0–0 Las PalmasSegunda División
25 July 2024Las Palmas 1–1 Granada CFFriendlies Clubs
3 February 2024Granada CF 1–1 Las PalmasLa Liga
24 September 2023Las Palmas 1–0 Granada CFLa Liga
15 April 2023Granada CF 2–1 Las PalmasSegunda División

Leading scorers: Granada CF and Las Palmas

Granada CF

GoalsAssists

Jorge Pascual40

Las Palmas

No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Granada CF a 2.1% chance of the title and Las Palmas 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Granada CF v Las Palmas has moved

First published on 1 Nov at 47% / 26% / 27% (home / draw / away). After 7 updates it reads 45% / 27% / 28%: the biggest move is Granada CF's chance of winning, down 2 points.

Granada CF win45%▼ −2
Draw27%▲ +1
Las Palmas win28%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Granada CF Las Palmas

0.75 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.74

1.34 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.42

1.65 Model expected goals (this match) 1.19

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Granada CF the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Granada CF against 1.19 for Las Palmas. Granada CF's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.42 for Las Palmas.

Granada CF carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.52 for Las Palmas. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 45% for Granada CF to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Granada CF to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Granada CF's ratings add 1 point and Las Palmas's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 45%.

Two average sides, neutral ground36%
Home advantage43%+7
Granada CF's ratings44%+1
Las Palmas's ratings45%+1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

Granada CFModelLas Palmas

Over 1.5 goals

90%

9 of 10 games

78%

model, this match

70%

7 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

60%

6 of 10 games

54%

model, this match

60%

6 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

40%

4 of 10 games

32%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Both teams score

60%

6 of 10 games

57%

model, this match

50%

5 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

Granada CFLas Palmas

12Matches13

7W 2D 3LRecord6W 2D 5L

20 1.7 per gameGoals scored19 1.5 per game

14 1.2 per gameGoals conceded21 1.6 per game

5 of 12Clean sheets5 of 13

2 of 12Failed to score2 of 13

1 of 2Penalties scored1 of 1

22 1.8 per gameYellow cards36 2.8 per game

0Red cards2

4-3-3 5×Usual shape4-4-2 7×

Granada CF at home · Las Palmas away

5Played6

3W 1D 1LRecord3W 0D 3L

9–5Goals for – against11–13

2 of 5Clean sheets2 of 6

League matches only, Segunda División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Segunda División matches this season: Granada CF 12, Las Palmas 13.

Granada CF scored 120554

Las Palmas conceded 350535

Las Palmas scored 251423

Granada CF conceded 532303

Las Palmas score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Granada CF have let in 3 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Granada CF

at Sabadell21 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 30%
vs AD Ceuta FC29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 61%
at Sporting Gijon6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 32%
vs Girona13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 34%

Las Palmas

at Sporting Gijon22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 30%
vs FC Andorra29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 45%
at Cordoba6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 31%
vs Celta de Vigo II13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 52%
at Sabadell20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 29%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.