Albacete
vs
Celta de Vigo II
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Albacete 2–1 Celta de Vigo II
The model makes it 45% Albacete, 25% draw, 30% Celta de Vigo II — fair odds of 2.22, 4.00 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Albacete 1.89, Celta de Vigo II 1.44.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Albacete's rating is built from 55 Segunda División matches and Celta de Vigo II's from 13, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,082 matches.
Key facts
- Albacete are 21st on 10 points from 13 games; Celta de Vigo II are 17th on 13 points from 13 games — Segunda División.
- Albacete are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Leganes.
- Celta de Vigo II are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Burgos.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Albacete vs Celta de Vigo II
Has the model earned this number?
Albacete at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Albacete vs Celta de Vigo II
Albacete
Segunda División
- W3-1away to Leganes7 November 2026
- W2-1Sabadell31 October 2026
- W2-0Eldense25 October 2026
- L1-2away to Sporting Gijon17 October 2026
- L0-5away to Valladolid12 October 2026
Celta de Vigo II
Segunda División
- L1-2away to Burgos7 November 2026
- D2-2Cordoba31 October 2026
- L1-5away to Girona24 October 2026
- D1-1Tenerife19 October 2026
- W4-1Real Sociedad II10 October 2026
What these results say
- Albacete scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Albacete conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Albacete had three goals or more.
- Celta de Vigo II scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Celta de Vigo II conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Celta de Vigo II.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Albacete | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 10 |
| 17 | Celta de Vigo II | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Albacete
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 45% today
Celta de Vigo II
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 30% today
From our Segunda División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Leading scorers: Albacete and Celta de Vigo II
Albacete
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Celta de Vigo II
GoalsAssists
- A. Marin81
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Celta de Vigo II (17th, with Albacete 21st), while our numbers lean to Albacete. Albacete rate 0.66 in attack and 1.55 in defence, Celta de Vigo II 0.77 and 1.85 (lower is better in defence), so Albacete have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 3-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
How the call on Albacete v Celta de Vigo II has moved
First published on 2 Nov at 43% / 25% / 32% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 45% / 25% / 30%: the biggest move is Albacete's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Albacete win45%▲ +2
- Draw25%=
- Celta de Vigo II win30%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Albacete the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Albacete against 1.44 for Celta de Vigo II. Albacete's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.85 for Celta de Vigo II.
How the model reaches 45% for Albacete to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Albacete to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Albacete's ratings take away 1 point and Celta de Vigo II's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Both sides at this match's level45%+2
- Albacete's ratings44%−1
- Celta de Vigo II's ratings45%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Albacete at home · Celta de Vigo II away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Albacete 13, Celta de Vigo II 13.
Albacete score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Celta de Vigo II have let in 2 there.
Celta de Vigo II score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Albacete have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Albacete
- at Burgos22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 22%
- vs Tenerife29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 40%
- at AD Ceuta FC6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 39%
- at Almeria13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 17%
- vs Mallorca20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 30%
Celta de Vigo II
- vs Valladolid22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 41%
- at Oviedo29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 24%
- vs Mallorca6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 30%
- at Las Palmas13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 25%
- vs Eldense20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 45%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.