Burgos
vs
Albacete
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Burgos 1–0 Albacete
The model makes it 50% Burgos, 28% draw, 22% Albacete — fair odds of 2.00, 3.57 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Burgos 1.59, Albacete 0.88.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to Burgos: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Burgos's rating is built from 56 Segunda División matches and Albacete's from 55, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,082 matches.
Key facts
- Burgos are 4th on 24 points from 14 games; Albacete are 21st on 10 points from 13 games — Segunda División.
- Burgos have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Leganes.
- Albacete are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Leganes.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 4 April 2026, ended Albacete 2–3 Burgos.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Burgos vs Albacete
Has the model earned this number?
Burgos at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Burgos vs Albacete
Burgos
Segunda División
- L1-3away to Leganes13 November 2026
- W2-1Celta de Vigo II7 November 2026
- D1-1Castellón1 November 2026
- W3-2away to FC Andorra26 October 2026
- W1-0Sabadell18 October 2026
Albacete
Segunda División
- W3-1away to Leganes7 November 2026
- W2-1Sabadell31 October 2026
- W2-0Eldense25 October 2026
- L1-2away to Sporting Gijon17 October 2026
- L0-5away to Valladolid12 October 2026
What these results say
- Burgos scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Burgos conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Burgos.
- Albacete scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Albacete conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Albacete had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Burgos | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 24 |
| 21 | Albacete | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Albacete
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 45% today
From our Segunda División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Burgos vs Albacete
- 4 April 2026Albacete 2–3 BurgosSegunda División
- 8 December 2025Burgos 0–1 AlbaceteSegunda División
- 10 March 2025Burgos 1–0 AlbaceteSegunda División
- 21 October 2024Albacete 2–0 BurgosSegunda División
- 28 January 2024Burgos 2–1 AlbaceteSegunda División
- 16 September 2023Albacete 2–1 BurgosSegunda División
Leading scorers: Burgos and Albacete
Burgos
GoalsAssists
- Álex Forés41
Albacete
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Burgos a 0.7% chance of the title and Albacete 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Burgos v Albacete has moved
First published on 8 Nov at 52% / 28% / 20% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 50% / 28% / 22%: the biggest move is Burgos's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Burgos win50%▼ −2
- Draw28%=
- Albacete win22%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Burgos the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Burgos against 0.88 for Albacete. Burgos's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.55 for Albacete.
How the model reaches 50% for Burgos to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Burgos to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Burgos's ratings add 3 points and Albacete's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 50%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Both sides at this match's level41%−2
- Burgos's ratings44%+3
- Albacete's ratings50%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Burgos at home · Albacete away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Burgos 14, Albacete 13.
Burgos score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Albacete have let in 3 there.
Albacete score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Burgos have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Burgos
- at Eibar29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 26%
- vs Cadiz6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 52%
- at Mallorca13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 26%
- vs Girona20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 34%
- at Valladolid3 Jan · Segunda Divisiónwin 35%
Albacete
- vs Tenerife29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 40%
- at AD Ceuta FC6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 39%
- at Almeria13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 17%
- vs Mallorca20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 30%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.