Tenerife
vs
AD Ceuta FC
Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Tenerife 2-0 AD Ceuta FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 56% Tenerife, 24% draw, 20% AD Ceuta FC — fair odds of 1.79, 4.17 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Expected goals: Tenerife 1.97, AD Ceuta FC 0.95.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More Segunda División predictions
Model insights: Tenerife vs AD Ceuta FC
Has the model earned this number?
Tenerife at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Tenerife vs AD Ceuta FC
Tenerife
Segunda División
- D2-2FC Andorra2 November 2026
- D1-1away to Sabadell25 October 2026
- D1-1away to Celta de Vigo II19 October 2026
- D1-1Girona12 October 2026
- L2-3away to Cordoba5 October 2026
AD Ceuta FC
Segunda División
- L0-3away to Cordoba7 November 2026
- L0-2Sporting Gijon1 November 2026
- L1-3away to Cadiz25 October 2026
- L1-2Oviedo18 October 2026
- L1-2Sabadell10 October 2026
What these results say
- Tenerife did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Tenerife scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Tenerife conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- AD Ceuta FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- AD Ceuta FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for AD Ceuta FC had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Tenerife | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 15 |
| 22 | AD Ceuta FC | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 30 | -20 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Tenerife and AD Ceuta FC
Tenerife
GoalsAssists
- Enric Gallego81
AD Ceuta FC
GoalsAssists
- Jordi Escobar41
- Carlos Hernández40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Tenerife beat AD Ceuta FC 2–0.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Tenerife a 14.0% chance to finish in the bottom four: 10.8% after a win, 15.3% after a draw, 19.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.8%, 3.2 points lower than before the match.
For AD Ceuta FC the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 95.2% going in: 93.2% after a win, 94.7% after a draw, 96.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 96.4%, 1.2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Tenerife v AD Ceuta FC has moved
First published on 1 Nov at 53% / 25% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 56% / 24% / 20%: the biggest move is Tenerife's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Tenerife win56%▲ +3
- Draw24%▼ −1
- AD Ceuta FC win20%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Tenerife the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Tenerife against 0.95 for AD Ceuta FC. Tenerife's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.87 for AD Ceuta FC.
How the model reaches 56% for Tenerife to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Tenerife to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Tenerife's ratings add 6 points and AD Ceuta FC's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 56%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Tenerife's ratings49%+6
- AD Ceuta FC's ratings56%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.