Girona vs Las Palmas Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Girona 5-2 Las Palmas.
Before kick-off the model made it 63% Girona, 22% draw, 15% Las Palmas — fair odds of 1.59, 4.55 and 6.67.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Girona at 63%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Girona vs Las Palmas
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13P. GazzanigaG
- 16A. FrancesD
- 5D. LopezD
- 38H. Zamorano
- 11A. MorenoD
- 17B. GilM
- 8F. BeltranM
- 24I. GonzalezM
- 21J. GarciaM
- 9A. RuizF
- 19V. VanatF
- 25V. KrapyvtsovG
- 4J. BonarD
- 39G. BadiaD
- 2A. MuminD
- 6D. van de BeekM
- 29L. KouroumaM
- 14I. MoranteM
- 30U. HernandezM
- 7C. StuaniF
- 13J. CaroG
- 27V. PezzolesiD
- 4Alex SuarezD
- 15J. HerzogD
- 5E. ClementeD
- 11T. MiyashiroM
- 12E. LoiodiceM
- 20K. RodriguezM
- 7J. BetancorM
- 14M. FusterF
- 10JeseF
- 35A. SuarezG
- 21G. BonfantiD
- 23A. RodriguezD
- 33V. VilloteD
- 24Ivan JaimeM
- 8S. RuizM
- 6I. GonzalezM
- 16M. AcimovicM
- 30I. MedinaF
Form going into Girona vs Las Palmas
Girona
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Cordoba21 August 2026
- D1-1Leganes16 August 2026
Las Palmas
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to AD Ceuta FC22 August 2026
- W2-1Albacete16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Girona | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 13 | +11 | 24 |
| 11 | Las Palmas | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Girona vs Las Palmas
- 3 February 2025Girona 2–1 Las PalmasLa Liga
- 26 October 2024Las Palmas 1–0 GironaLa Liga
- 27 April 2024Las Palmas 0–2 GironaLa Liga
- 3 September 2023Girona 1–0 Las PalmasLa Liga
- 12 March 2022Las Palmas 1–3 GironaSegunda División
- 22 August 2021Girona 0–0 Las PalmasSegunda División
Leading scorers: Girona and Las Palmas
Girona
GoalsAssists
- V. Vanat52
- Y. Asprilla51
Las Palmas
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Girona beat Las Palmas 5–2. The model had made a win for Girona its most likely outcome, at 63%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: J. Garcia 22' for Girona, Ivan Jaime 48' for Las Palmas, F. Beltran 55' for Girona, Y. Asprilla 60' for Girona, Y. Asprilla 72' for Girona, T. Miyashiro 85' for Las Palmas, I. Gonzalez 90' for Girona. Sent off: Jesé Rodríguez (Las Palmas) 75'. On expected goals it finished 2.25–0.82.