Udinese vs Cagliari Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Udinese 0-1 Cagliari.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Udinese, 30% draw, 31% Cagliari — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Udinese at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Udinese vs Cagliari
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 40Maduka OkoyeG
- 14James AbankwahD
- 27Christian KabaseleD
- 77Enzo EbosseD
- 23Mërgim VojvodaM
- 38Lennon MillerM
- 8Jesper KarlströmM
- 11Hassane KamaraM
- 10Nicolò ZanioloF
- 32Jürgen EkkelenkampF
- 9Keinan DavisF
- 7Idrissa GueyeF
- 30Giorgi ChakvetadzeM
- 46Unai GómezM
- 59Alessandro ZanoliD
- 15Vakoun Issouf BayoF
- 93Daniele PadelliG
- 41Bartosz MrozekG
- 13Nicolò BertolaD
- 6Oier ZarragaM
- 1Elia CaprileG
- 8Michel AdopoD
- 2Zé PedroD
- 26Yerry MinaD
- 15Juan RodríguezD
- 33Adam ObertD
- 4Alessandro RomanoM
- 6Harry WinksM
- 14Alessandro DeiolaM
- 31Paul MendyF
- 70Daniel MaldiniF
- 28Yukinari SugawaraD
- 9Kevin Carlos OmoruyiF
- 21Roberto GagliardiniM
- 39Alieu FaderaF
- 23Boris RadunovićG
- 12Alen SherriG
- 22Raphael KoflerD
- 24Giuseppe AurelioD
- 20Riccardo CiervoF
Form going into Udinese vs Cagliari
Udinese
All competitions we cover
- L3-5away to Inter14 September 2026
- L1-2Lazio7 September 2026
- W3-2away to Monza29 August 2026
- D1-1Como22 August 2026
Cagliari
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Atalanta12 September 2026
- W1-0Lecce7 September 2026
- L0-1Inter30 August 2026
- W1-0away to Parma22 August 2026
What these results say
- Udinese scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Udinese conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Udinese.
- Cagliari won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Cagliari scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Cagliari had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Udinese | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 5 |
| 9 | Cagliari | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Udinese vs Cagliari
- 9 May 2026Cagliari 0–2 UdineseSerie A
- 5 October 2025Udinese 1–1 CagliariSerie A
- 3 May 2025Cagliari 1–2 UdineseSerie A
- 25 October 2024Udinese 2–0 CagliariSerie A
- 18 February 2024Udinese 1–1 CagliariSerie A
Leading scorers: Udinese and Cagliari
Udinese
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Cagliari
GoalsAssists
- D. Maldini50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cagliari won 1–0 at Udinese. The model had leaned towards a win for Udinese at 39% and given a win for Cagliari 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: D. Maldini 54' for Cagliari. On expected goals it finished 1.92–1.12.
How the call on Udinese v Cagliari has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 43% / 28% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 39% / 30% / 31%: the biggest move is Udinese's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Udinese win39%▼ −4
- Draw30%▲ +2
- Cagliari win31%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.