Venezia vs Lazio Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Venezia 0-2 Lazio.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Venezia, 28% draw, 40% Lazio — fair odds of 3.13, 3.57 and 2.50.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Lazio at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Venezia vs Lazio
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1F. StankovicG
- 3J. SchingtienneD
- 15Juan JesusD
- 2M. MorenoD
- 18A. HainautM
- 71K. PerezM
- 19S. SohmM
- 21T. J. HelgasonM
- 14T. CorreiaM
- 10J. YeboahF
- 45A. AdamsF
- 96L. MontipoG
- 16R. MohammedD
- 25R. HalhalD
- 20R. SagradoD
- 95A. GomesD
- 55S. PanadaM
- 8L. FanneM
- 36L. BerardiM
- 29L. LauberbachF
- 35C. MandasG
- 15R. FlorianiD
- 37J. SutaloD
- 25O. ProvstgaardD
- 17N. TavaresD
- 16D. FrattesiM
- 21R. BelahyaneM
- 24K. TaylorM
- 22M. CancellieriF
- 14T. NoslinF
- 10M. ZaccagniF
- 47D. RenzettiG
- 40E. MottaG
- 2D. LeiteD
- 23A. PedrazaD
- 5D. DoekhiD
- 29M. LazzariM
- 32D. CataldiM
- 71V. FarcomeniM
- 80A. GudmundssonF
Form going into Venezia vs Lazio
Venezia
All competitions we cover
- L2-4Fiorentina11 September 2026
- L2-3away to Frosinone6 September 2026
- L0-2away to AC Milan28 August 2026
- L0-2Lecce23 August 2026
Lazio
All competitions we cover
- D2-2AC Milan12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Udinese7 September 2026
- W1-0Genoa30 August 2026
- W1-0away to Bologna24 August 2026
What these results say
- Venezia did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Venezia conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Lazio went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Lazio scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Lazio won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Venezia | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 21 | -13 | 6 |
| 1 | Lazio | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 9 | +16 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Venezia vs Lazio
- 22 February 2025Venezia 0–0 LazioSerie A
- 18 August 2024Lazio 3–1 VeneziaSerie A
- 14 March 2022Lazio 1–0 VeneziaSerie A
- 22 December 2021Venezia 1–3 LazioSerie A
Leading scorers: Venezia and Lazio
Venezia
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Lazio
GoalsAssists
- T. Noslin44
- G. Isaksen41
- D. Frattesi40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Lazio won 2–0 at Venezia. The model had made a win for Lazio its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: M. Zaccagni (penalty) 51' for Lazio, T. Noslin 60' for Lazio. On expected goals it finished 1.88–1.60.
How the call on Venezia v Lazio has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 36% / 29% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 32% / 28% / 40%: the biggest move is Lazio's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Venezia win32%▼ −4
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Lazio win40%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.