Bologna vs Torino Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Bologna 1-1 Torino.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Bologna, 29% draw, 28% Torino — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Bologna at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bologna vs Torino
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Łukasz SkorupskiG
- 5Eivind HellandD
- 14Torbjørn HeggemD
- 3Arthur TheateD
- 20Nadir ZorteaM
- 19Lewis FergusonM
- 4Tommaso PobegaM
- 33Juan MirandaM
- 10Federico BernardeschiF
- 91Roberto PiccoliF
- 28Nicolò CambiaghiF
- 29Lorenzo De SilvestriD
- 21Jens OdgaardF
- 7Riccardo OrsoliniF
- 6Nikola MoroM
- 2Emil HolmD
- 25Massimo PessinaG
- 72Ukko HapponenG
- 23Abdel RahimD
- 41Martin VitíkD
- 20Lucas PerriG
- 5Eray CömertD
- 44Ardian IsmajliD
- 23Saúl CocoD
- 29Niccolò FortiniM
- 21Daniel BragançaM
- 8Rolando MandragoraM
- 28Kian Fitz-JimM
- 77Alessio CacciamaniM
- 18Giovanni SimeoneF
- 10Nikola VlašićF
- 2Nathan PattersonD
- 17Sandro KulenovićF
- 45Rafik BelghaliD
- 11Gaetano OristanioM
- 6Emirhan İlkhanM
- 26Diego MascardiG
- 76Lapo SivieroG
- 13Ricardo RodríguezD
- 3Cristiano BiraghiD
Form going into Bologna vs Torino
Bologna
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Napoli13 September 2026
- D2-2Sassuolo6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Atalanta31 August 2026
- L0-1Lazio24 August 2026
Torino
All competitions we cover
- L0-2AS Roma14 September 2026
- W2-1away to Fiorentina5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Sassuolo29 August 2026
- L1-2AC Milan23 August 2026
What these results say
- Bologna did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Bologna conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Bologna failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Torino conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Torino failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Torino scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Bologna | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 17 |
| 11 | Torino | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bologna vs Torino
- 15 February 2026Torino 1–2 BolognaSerie A
- 29 October 2025Bologna 0–0 TorinoSerie A
- 14 February 2025Bologna 3–2 TorinoSerie A
- 21 December 2024Torino 0–2 BolognaSerie A
- 3 May 2024Torino 0–0 BolognaSerie A
Leading scorers: Bologna and Torino
Bologna
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Torino
GoalsAssists
- C. Adams40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Bologna and Torino drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Bologna at 43% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: F. Bernardeschi 14' for Bologna, S. Kulenovic 77' for Torino. On expected goals it finished 0.58–0.87.