Puebla vs Atlante FC Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Puebla 1-1 Atlante FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Puebla, 30% draw, 24% Atlante FC — fair odds of 2.17, 3.33 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Puebla at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Puebla vs Atlante FC
Line-ups
- 28R. GutiérrezG
- 20J. PachucaD
- 5F. AlmadaD
- 4J. VargasD
- 7F. MonárrezD
- 24A. OrganistaM
- 21S. SanabriaM
- 27B. GarnicaM
- 10M. TomásM
- 22C. BaltazarM
- 19I. Maestro PuchF
- 34Lucas CamiloM
- 9L. HernándezF
- 3A. HerreraM
- 25H. JuradoF
- 2Á. LeyvaD
- 12I. MorenoM
- 8O. MorenoF
- 16A. RamírezM
- 33J. RodríguezG
- 1Ó. JiménezG
- 6J. N. CarreraD
- 4E. TerceroD
- 44A. QuirozD
- 29Walter PortalesM
- 8E. PizzutoM
- 16José GonzálezM
- 37W. ClarM
- 30M. SarrafioreF
- 7J. JulioF
- 19L. CalzadillaF
- 3G. SánchezD
- 9L. PuenteF
- 11Joaquin Alejandro Moxica ChapaF
- 25M. FernándezM
- 27A. EscobarD
- 15Jairón Andrés Charcopa CabezasF
- 18C. BermúdezM
- 22R. BarraganG
- 14C. AlfaroD
Form going into Puebla vs Atlante FC
Puebla
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Toluca16 September 2026
- W1-0away to Necaxa12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Club America30 August 2026
- W3-2Santos Laguna23 August 2026
- W3-2away to CF Pachuca18 August 2026
Atlante FC
All competitions we cover
- L0-3CF Pachuca12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Atlas6 September 2026
- D1-1Leon29 August 2026
- L0-2away to Tigres UANL22 August 2026
- D0-0Toluca15 August 2026
What these results say
- Puebla conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atlante FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Atlante FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Atlante FC had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Puebla | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 19 |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Puebla vs Atlante FC
- 23 December 2024Atlante FC 1–0 PueblaFriendlies Clubs
The result against the call
Puebla and Atlante FC drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Puebla at 46% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Walter Portales 41' for Atlante FC, Mathías Adrián Tomás Borges 53' for Puebla.
How the call on Puebla v Atlante FC has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 41% / 30% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 46% / 30% / 24%: the biggest move is Puebla's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Puebla win46%▲ +5
- Draw30%=
- Atlante FC win24%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.