10 October 2026, 13:30 UTC

Unia Skierniewice vs Nieciecza I Liga prediction & result

Stadion Miejski, Skierniewice
Referee: M. Jenda
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Unia Skierniewice 2-2 Nieciecza.

Before kick-off the model made it 27% Unia Skierniewice, 27% draw, 46% Nieciecza — fair odds of 3.70, 3.70 and 2.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Nieciecza at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Unia Skierniewice3%Draw92%Nieciecza5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
⚽W. Jakubikassist: D. Hilbrycht
12'
M. Kozik
⚽B. Bidaassist: J. Mierzwa
31'
34'
⚽I. Durdovassist: M. Jaroszewski
46'
🔁M. Kozikout: A. Zarowny
⚽J. Mierzwaassist: A. Burkiewicz
53'
🔁S. Dudekout: M. Kosior
60'
64'
🔁I. Durdovout: K. Zapolnik
71'
🔁W. Jakubikout: D. Biniek
🔁D. Gaskaout: K. Toporkiewicz
72'
🔁M. Szmydout: B. Eizenchart
72'
J. Mierzwa
73'
85'
D. Hilbrycht
🔁A. Burkiewiczout: O. Melich
85'
🔁D. Makuchout: J. Bieronski
85'
M. Stepien
87'
87'
🔁R. Bobocout: O. Slawinski
87'
🔁D. Hilbrychtout: S. Dabrowski

Line-ups

Unia Skierniewice
Coach: Kamil Socha
Nieciecza
Coach: Marcin Brosz

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Unia Skierniewice144282026-614
6Nieciecza146442220+222

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Unia Skierniewice and Nieciecza drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Nieciecza at 46% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: W. Jakubik 5' for Nieciecza, B. Bida 31' for Unia Skierniewice, I. Durdov 34' for Nieciecza, J. Mierzwa 53' for Unia Skierniewice.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Unia Skierniewice a 56.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 46.9% after a win, 56.6% after a draw, 61.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 56.6%.

For Nieciecza the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 65.6% going in: 71.2% after a win, 61.4% after a draw, 59.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 61.4%, 4.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our I Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Unia Skierniewice v Nieciecza has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 29% / 28% / 43% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 27% / 27% / 46%: the biggest move is Nieciecza's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Unia Skierniewice win27%▼ −2
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Nieciecza win46%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.