9 October 2026, 18:30 UTC

Podbeskidzie vs Pogoń Siedlce I Liga prediction & result

Stadion Miejski w Bielsku Bialej
Referee: S. Krasny
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Podbeskidzie 1-0 Pogoń Siedlce.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Podbeskidzie, 31% draw, 27% Pogoń Siedlce — fair odds of 2.38, 3.23 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Podbeskidzie at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Podbeskidzie97%Draw3%Pogoń Siedlce0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽L. Klisiewiczassist: T. Hirosawa
6'
16'
M. Marzec
21'
S. Kobusinski
🔁O. Sewerzynskiout: A. Iwanczyk
65'
A. Iwanczyk
66'
71'
🔁L. Trepkaout: J. Barczak
71'
🔁S. Kobusinskiout: C. Demianiuk
🔁M. Rakoczyout: D. Takac
72'
🔁T. Hirosawaout: K. Gach
72'
🔁L. Klisiewiczout: Y. Shikavka
80'
🔁M. Urynowiczout: K. Smolinski
80'
87'
🔁D. Szuprytowskiout: R. Makowski
87'
🔁E. Dzieciolout: N. Zielonka
90+1'
🔁M. Rosolekout: P. Klimek
Y. Shikavka
90+3'

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Podbeskidzie142931720-315
10Pogoń Siedlce145451717019

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Podbeskidzie vs Pogoń Siedlce

  • 26 September 2023Pogoń Siedlce 1–3 PodbeskidzieCup
  • 25 September 2019Pogoń Siedlce 1–0 PodbeskidzieCup

The result against the call

Podbeskidzie beat Pogoń Siedlce 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Podbeskidzie at 42%. The goal: L. Klisiewicz 6' for Podbeskidzie.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Podbeskidzie a 29.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 23.1% after a win, 31.8% after a draw, 36.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.1%, 6.3 points lower than before the match.

For Pogoń Siedlce the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 14.1% going in: 8.6% after a win, 13.1% after a draw, 17.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.3%, 3.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our I Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Podbeskidzie v Pogoń Siedlce has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 40% / 31% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 42% / 31% / 27%: the biggest move is Podbeskidzie's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Podbeskidzie win42%▲ +2
  2. Draw31%=
  3. Pogoń Siedlce win27%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.