10 October 2026, 13:30 UTC

Chrobry Głogów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki I Liga prediction & result

Stadion Chrobrego
Referee: P. Horozaniecki
Full time0 – 4

Final score: Chrobry Głogów 0-4 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Chrobry Głogów, 30% draw, 26% Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — fair odds of 2.27, 3.33 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Chrobry Głogów at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Chrobry Głogów0%Draw1%Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

14'
⚽A. Oshafiassist: H. Uzoigwe
36'
⚽B. Ciepielaassist: J. Zbrog
43'
⚽K. Losassist: J. Zbrog
🔁K. Tabisout: B. Czajka
46'
🔁R. Bakout: A. Bukowski
46'
62'
🔁A. Oshafiout: D. Jaron
62'
🔁R. Majewskiout: H. Turski
🔁A. Klimekout: A. Sadiku
62'
69'
⚽D. Jaronassist: H. Turski
🔁K. Ibe-Tortiout: M. Ozimek
72'
75'
🔁B. Ciepielaout: M. Ruszkiewicz
75'
🔁J. Zbrogout: N. Niski
80'
🔁J. Konstantynout: O. Koprowski
🔁K. Grzelakout: A. Rybak
80'
83'
D. Jaron

Line-ups

Chrobry Głogów
Coach: Lukasz Becella
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Coach: Tomasz Kafarski

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Chrobry Głogów143651517-215
7Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki146352014+621

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Chrobry Głogów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

  • 7 March 2026Chrobry Głogów 3–0 Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiI Liga
  • 23 August 2025Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1–1 Chrobry GłogówI Liga

The result against the call

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki won 4–0 at Chrobry Głogów. The model had leaned towards a win for Chrobry Głogów at 44% and given a win for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: A. Oshafi 14' for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, B. Ciepiela 36' for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, K. Los 43' for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, D. Jaron 69' for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Chrobry Głogów a 20.5% chance to finish in the top four: 24.3% after a win, 17.8% after a draw, 13.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.9%, 6.6 points lower than before the match.

For Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 31.0% going in: 38.8% after a win, 31.0% after a draw, 26.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 38.8%, 7.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our I Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Chrobry Głogów v Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 41% / 31% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 44% / 30% / 26%: the biggest move is Chrobry Głogów's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Chrobry Głogów win44%▲ +3
  2. Draw30%▼ −1
  3. Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win26%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.