10 October 2026, 13:30 UTC

Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa I Liga prediction & result

Stadion Miejski w Gdyni, Gdynia
Referee: M. Piszczelok
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Arka Gdynia 1-2 Polonia Warszawa.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% Arka Gdynia, 25% draw, 22% Polonia Warszawa — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Arka Gdynia at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Arka Gdynia0%Draw6%Polonia Warszawa94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽V. Gutkovskisassist: D. Gojny
17'
38'
⚽R. Dadokassist: P. Olszewski
🔁A. Sidibeout: F. Walus
59'
🔁N. Dziegielewskiout: D. Kocyla
66'
🔁D. Kunout: S. Lewkot
67'
67'
🔁R. Dadokout: D. Vega
75'
🔁T. Makowskiout: S. Kowalczyk
83'
🔁G. Barkovskiyout: K. Kostorz
83'
🔁J. Paszkowskiout: A. Kapusta
88'
⚽K. Kostorz
🔁V. Gutkovskisout: B. Pawlowski
88'
🔁K. Soleckiout: J. Kowalski
88'

Line-ups

Polonia Warszawa
Coach: Piotr Stokowiec

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Arka Gdynia145361917+218
1Polonia Warszawa147432315+825

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa

  • 14 February 2025Arka Gdynia 0–0 Polonia WarszawaI Liga
  • 3 August 2024Polonia Warszawa 0–3 Arka GdyniaI Liga
  • 17 February 2024Polonia Warszawa 0–3 Arka GdyniaI Liga
  • 7 August 2023Arka Gdynia 2–3 Polonia WarszawaI Liga

The result against the call

Polonia Warszawa won 2–1 at Arka Gdynia. The model had leaned towards a win for Arka Gdynia at 53% and given a win for Polonia Warszawa 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: V. Gutkovskis 17' for Arka Gdynia, R. Dadok 38' for Polonia Warszawa, K. Kostorz 88' for Polonia Warszawa.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Arka Gdynia a 38.3% chance to finish in the top four: 42.2% after a win, 33.2% after a draw, 30.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 30.1%, 8.2 points lower than before the match.

For Polonia Warszawa the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 19.6% going in: 26.3% after a win, 19.6% after a draw, 16.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 26.3%, 6.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our I Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Arka Gdynia v Polonia Warszawa has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 48% / 27% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 53% / 25% / 22%: the biggest move is Arka Gdynia's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Arka Gdynia win53%▲ +5
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. Polonia Warszawa win22%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.