Farense vs Feirense Segunda Liga prediction & result
Final score: Farense 2-1 Feirense.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% Farense, 27% draw, 16% Feirense — fair odds of 1.75, 3.70 and 6.25.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Farense at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Farense vs Feirense
Line-ups
- 97F. BuntićG
- 78Alex PintoD
- 44N. ZolotićD
- 37Gonçalo SilvaD
- 22Toni HerreroD
- 27Mattheus OliveiraM
- 29Cláudio FalcãoM
- 10S. SinghM
- 17André CandeiasF
- 11Nélson OliveiraF
- 7João ResendeF
- 8Miguel MeninoM
- 9Gabriel BarbosaF
- 19L. OliveiraF
- 15J. Diazongua NfiniguiM
- 18Bruno SantosF
- 3Lucas D'AgrellaD
- 43Dário MirandaD
- 5Rodrigo BorgesD
- 6Derick PoloniD
- 26Diego AltubeG
- 14Pedro PintoD
- 4Antonio LealD
- 40João QueirósD
- 2Luiz GustavoD
- 77Gui MeiraM
- 24M. DiabyM
- 16André LopesD
- 20João OliveiraD
- 25Henrique PereiraF
- 90LuisinhoM
- 8Gui SantosM
- 15Diego MorenoD
- 1Francisco MeixedoG
- 3KaiquyD
- 19Alexandre GuedesF
- 23Pedro HenriqueF
- 27Tiago CastroM
- 6Diogo MendesM
- 9J. MonteiroF
Form going into Farense vs Feirense
Farense
Segunda Liga
- W4-0Chaves4 October 2026
Feirense
Segunda Liga
- L0-1away to Chaves13 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Farense | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 15 |
| 18 | Feirense | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Farense vs Feirense
- 4 April 2026Farense 0–1 FeirenseSegunda Liga
- 7 November 2025Feirense 0–0 FarenseSegunda Liga
- 29 April 2023Feirense 1–2 FarenseSegunda Liga
- 12 November 2022Farense 0–0 FeirenseSegunda Liga
- 8 February 2022Feirense 4–1 FarenseSegunda Liga
Leading scorers: Farense and Feirense
Farense
GoalsAssists
- Gonçalo Silva10
- S. Singh10
Feirense
GoalsAssists
- J. Monteiro10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Farense beat Feirense 2–1. The model had made a win for Farense its most likely outcome, at 57%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Gonçalo Silva 29' for Farense, Sarpreet Singh 50' for Farense, Jair Monteiro 80' for Feirense.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Farense a 39.4% chance to finish in the top four: 42.3% after a win, 35.6% after a draw, 31.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 42.3%, 2.9 points higher than before the match.
For Feirense the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 79.5% going in: 72.1% after a win, 79.3% after a draw, 81.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 81.8%, 2.3 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Segunda Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Farense v Feirense has moved
First published on 2 Oct at 48% / 30% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 57% / 27% / 16%: the biggest move is Farense's chance of winning, up 9 points.
- Farense win57%▲ +9
- Draw27%▼ −3
- Feirense win16%▼ −6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.