Union Santa Fe vs Lanus Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Union Santa Fe 2-1 Lanus.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Union Santa Fe, 29% draw, 21% Lanus — fair odds of 2.00, 3.45 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Union Santa Fe at 50% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Union Santa Fe vs Lanus
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 21Matías MansillaG
- 35Lautaro VargasD
- 2Maizon RodriguezD
- 26Juan Pablo LudueñaD
- 18Lucas AyalaD
- 5Lucas MenossiM
- 20Julián PalaciosM
- 17Joaquin MosqueiraM
- 10Ignacio MalcorraM
- 25Cristian TarragonaF
- 31Misael AguirreF
- 19Marcelo EstigarribiaF
- 12Bruno PittónD
- 11Mauro LunaM
- 8Emilio GiacconeM
- 15Juan PintadoD
- 40Lucas MeuliG
- 44Tomás FagioliD
- 36Mateo AimarD
- 22Brahian CuelloM
- 26Nahuel LosadaG
- 4Gonzalo PerezD
- 24Carlos IzquierdozD
- 35Ronaldo De JesusD
- 6Sasha MarcichD
- 17Agustín MedinaM
- 30Agustín CardozoM
- 16Matías SepúlvedaM
- 23Ramiro CarreraM
- 77Lucas BesozziM
- 19Yoshan ValoisF
- 11Eduardo SalvioM
- 5Felipe Peña BiaforeM
- 25Dylan AquinoF
- 20Allan WlkF
- 9Walter BouF
- 1Franco PetroliG
- 33Tomás GuidaraD
- 2Luciano RomeroD
- 3Nicolás MorgantiniD
Form going into Union Santa Fe vs Lanus
Union Santa Fe
- L0-2away to Gimnasia Mendoza1 August 2026
- D2-2away to Platense25 July 2026
Lanus
- L0-1Instituto Cordoba3 August 2026
- W1-0San Lorenzo26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Union Santa Fe | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 13 |
| 7 | Lanus | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Union Santa Fe vs Lanus
- 6 August 2026Union Santa Fe 2–1 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
- 29 January 2026Lanus 2–1 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
- 13 September 2024Lanus 1–1 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
- 28 March 2024Lanus 2–2 Union Santa FeCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 5 November 2023Union Santa Fe 0–0 LanusCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 17 June 2023Union Santa Fe 1–1 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Union Santa Fe and Lanus
Union Santa Fe
- C. Tarragona14 goals1 assists
Lanus
- D. Aquino6 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.