11 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

Universidad Catolica vs Macara Liga Pro prediction & result

Quito
Referee: Patricio Parrao
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Universidad Catolica 0-1 Macara.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Universidad Catolica, 25% draw, 26% Macara — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Universidad Catolica at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Universidad Catolica0%Draw6%Macara94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

34'
⚽Franco Posseassist: augustin campana
44'
Eric David Valencia Reasco
45+4'
Jordán Josué Mohor Nazareno
45'
🔁Eric David Valencia Reascoout: Jhostin David Mina Herrera
45'
🔁Bruss Abadi Coello Moreiraout: Carlos Caicedo
45'
🔁Andrés Rodríguezout: José Fajardo
47'
•Byron Palacios
49'
⚽José Fajardo (pen)
64'
🔁Eddy Mejiaout: Azarias Londono
72'
🔁Byron Palaciosout: Mauricio Sebastian·Alonso Pereda
72'
🔁Daniel Clavijoout: Facundo Martinez
73'
Mauro Díaz
76'
🔁M. Vieraout: Luis Loor
76'
🔁Jordán Josué Mohor Nazarenoout: Marlon Medranda
87'
🔁augustin campanaout: Patricio Andrés Ramos Llerena
88'
Azarias Londono
90+2'
🔁Franco Posseout: Luca Agustín Ferro

Match stats — Universidad Catolica vs Macara

0%Possession32%
0Shots12
0On target4
0Corners5
0xG0.98

Line-ups

Macara 4-2-3-1
  • 1R. RodriguezG
  • 25J. BolañosD
  • 4J. JiménezD
  • 14J. MarrufoD
  • 27J. MohorD
  • 52B. CoelloM
  • 16J. CazaresM
  • 28A. CampanaM
  • 15M. TelloM
  • 20M. VieraM
  • 9F. PosseF
Substitutes
  • 77J. ChaláF
  • 19P. RamosF
  • 26M. MedrandaD
  • 87J. KlingerF
  • 22L. FerroF
  • 11Tono EspinozaM
  • 3Juan EspinozaD
  • 12D. CueroG
  • 50C. CaicedoM
Coach: G. Sanguinetti

Head-to-head: Universidad Catolica vs Macara

  • 18 August 2026Macara 1–1 Universidad Catolica QuitoLiga Pro
  • 24 April 2026Universidad Catolica Quito 4–0 MacaraLiga Pro
  • 27 July 2025Macara 1–4 Universidad Catolica QuitoLiga Pro
  • 6 April 2025Universidad Catolica Quito 1–0 MacaraLiga Pro
  • 30 November 2024Macara 1–2 Universidad Catolica QuitoLiga Pro

Leading scorers: Universidad Catolica and Macara

Universidad Catolica

No leading scorers listed yet.

Macara

GoalsAssists

  • F. Posse175
  • A. Campana123

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Macara won 1–0 at Universidad Catolica. The model had leaned towards a win for Universidad Catolica at 49% and given a win for Macara 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Franco Posse 34' for Macara.

How the call on Universidad Catolica v Macara has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 45% / 27% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 49% / 25% / 26%: the biggest move is Universidad Catolica's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Universidad Catolica win49%▲ +4
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. Macara win26%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.