Guayaquil City FC vs Emelec Liga Pro prediction & result
Final score: Guayaquil City FC 3-2 Emelec.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Guayaquil City FC, 27% draw, 25% Emelec — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Guayaquil City FC at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Guayaquil City FC vs Emelec
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30J. PinosG
- 33R. CaicedoD
- 3Y. RodríguezD
- 4E. LadinesD
- 6R. AriasD
- 14D. ArroyoM
- 20S. LaurinoM
- 80P. GonzálezM
- 17J. AyoviM
- 21D. DorregarayM
- 11E. MeroF
- 70P. MancillaD
- 1G. NapaG
- 19A. NaulaM
- 16J. OrdóñezM
- 7J. CaicedoF
- 9M. PalmaF
- 12Rodrigo Ramiro Perea SalazarG
- 29J. QuiñónezD
- 50F. RivadeneiraM
- 12P. OrtízG
- 80O. HerreraD
- 27F. LeónD
- 4E. SeguraD
- 3I. GuerricoD
- 19J. RuízM
- 5A. MinaM
- 32J. ValverdeM
- 59Reixon SayaM
- 9R. CarrilloF
- 11S. ArceF
- 13Luis Fernando Gómez AnguloD
- 17J. AyovíF
- 26I. CueroM
- 15Luis FragozoF
- 6V. GriffithM
- 7L. KlimowiczF
- 30Madison Ariel Mina IbarraD
- 8G. NápoliM
- 10F. PizziniF
Head-to-head: Guayaquil City FC vs Emelec
- 10 August 2026Guayaquil City FC 0–0 EmelecLiga Pro
- 18 April 2026Emelec 1–3 Guayaquil City FCLiga Pro
- 22 October 2025Guayaquil City FC 0–0 EmelecCopa Ecuador
- 4 November 2023Guayaquil City FC 0–0 EmelecLiga Pro
- 30 May 2023Emelec 0–0 Guayaquil City FCLiga Pro
- 12 February 2023Emelec 2–0 Guayaquil City FCFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Guayaquil City FC and Emelec
Guayaquil City FC
GoalsAssists
- E. Mero135
- D. Dorregaray92
Emelec
GoalsAssists
- R. Carrillo133
- L. Klimowicz62
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Guayaquil City FC beat Emelec 3–2. The model had made a win for Guayaquil City FC its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Ronie Carrillo 43' for Emelec, Ronie Carrillo 45+1' for Emelec, Diego Dorregaray 62' for Guayaquil City FC, Diego Dorregaray (penalty) 71' for Guayaquil City FC, Diego Dorregaray (penalty) 90+1' for Guayaquil City FC. Sent off: Jaime Ayoví (Emelec) 90'. On expected goals it finished 2.42–1.52.
How the call on Guayaquil City FC v Emelec has moved
First published on 2 Oct at 45% / 29% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 48% / 27% / 25%: the biggest move is Guayaquil City FC's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Guayaquil City FC win48%▲ +3
- Draw27%▼ −2
- Emelec win25%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.