10 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Manta FC vs Tecnico Universitario Liga Pro prediction & result

Estadio Jocay, Manta
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Manta FC 1-0 Tecnico Universitario.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Manta FC, 28% draw, 30% Tecnico Universitario — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Manta FC at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Manta FC95%Draw5%Tecnico Universitario0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

28'
Wagner Eriberto Caicedo Peralta
⚽Jostin Almanassist: J. Vergés
40'
45'
🔁Luis Estupiñanout: Johan Bocanegra
Felix Alejandro Zambrano Santizaba
52'
59'
🔁Adrian Celaout: Cesar Castano
Mateo Ortiz
64'
🔁Jose Enrique Angulo Caicedoout: Ángel Ledesma
70'
🔁J. Vergésout: Glendys Calos Mina
70'
72'
Jonathan Alexis Majao Aguayo
77'
🔁Carlos Cueroout: Luis Cordova
77'
🔁E. Mesaout: Anthony Castilo
Juan Jimenez
80'
🔁Jefferson Troyaout: Jefferson Nazareno
81'
🔁José Monagaout: Juan Nazareno
81'
87'
🔁Jonathan Alexis Majao Aguayoout: Carlos Ronny Estupiñán García
🔁Juan Jimenezout: M. Valencia
87'
Ángel Ledesma
90+3'

Match stats — Manta FC vs Tecnico Universitario

44%Possession56%
15Shots11
3On target1
13Corners7
0.81xG1.28

Goals against chances

Manta FC1 from 0.81 xGabout what the chances were worth
Tecnico Universitario0 from 1.28 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Manta FC 4-4-2
  • 12F. ZambranoG
  • 23A. MedinaD
  • 24O. MoscarelliD
  • 21M. OrtízD
  • 25J. MonagaD
  • 27Jefferson Alberto Troya VeraM
  • 6J. JiménezM
  • 5B. RamírezM
  • 55J. VergésM
  • 17José Enrique Angulo CaicedoF
  • 19J. AlmanF
Substitutes
  • 4J. NazarenoD
  • 70J. NazarenoM
  • 52J. RialpeM
  • 8M. ValenciaF
  • 9J. BlancoF
  • 11F. AsagidigbiF
  • 10R. BurbanoM
  • 7Walter Leodán Chalá VásquezF
  • 1W. ChávezG
Coach: Eduardo Carvajal Burgos Javier
Tecnico Universitario 4-4-2
  • 12Ayrton MoralesG
  • 23E. MesaD
  • 13J. AnayaD
  • 5S. MenaD
  • 79C. CueroD
  • 7L. EstupiñánM
  • 33J. MajaoM
  • 29A. CelaM
  • 25B. DelgadoM
  • 90W. CaicedoF
  • 8D. ArmasF
Substitutes
  • 30Luis Arce Caicedo KenerD
  • 67M. CarrascoM
  • 85Y. ArceD
  • 10J. BocanegraM
  • 70C. CastañoM
  • 15F. CastillloM
  • 19Anthony CastiloF
  • 4Luis Mario Cordova MinaD
  • 77C. GarciaM
Coach: Ismael Blanco

Liga Pro table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Manta FC3696212752-2533
15Tecnico Universitario36114213549-1437

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Manta FC vs Tecnico Universitario

  • 26 July 2026Tecnico Universitario 1–0 Manta FCLiga Pro
  • 5 April 2026Manta FC 0–2 Tecnico UniversitarioLiga Pro
  • 29 November 2025Tecnico Universitario 2–3 Manta FCLiga Pro
  • 19 October 2025Manta FC 2–0 Tecnico UniversitarioLiga Pro
  • 3 August 2025Tecnico Universitario 3–1 Manta FCLiga Pro
  • 11 April 2025Manta FC 2–1 Tecnico UniversitarioLiga Pro

Leading scorers: Manta FC and Tecnico Universitario

Manta FC

GoalsAssists

  • José Enrique Angulo Caicedo70

Tecnico Universitario

No player in Liga Pro's leading scorers — 35 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Manta FC beat Tecnico Universitario 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Manta FC at 42%. The goal: Jostin Alman 40' for Manta FC. Sent off: Mateo Ortiz (Manta FC) 64'. On expected goals it finished 0.81–1.28.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Tecnico Universitario a 5.5% chance to win the league: 8.7% after a win, 4.7% after a draw, 3.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 3.1%, 2.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Liga Pro season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Manta FC v Tecnico Universitario has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 40% / 29% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 42% / 28% / 30%: the biggest move is Manta FC's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Manta FC win42%▲ +2
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Tecnico Universitario win30%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.