11 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Orense SC vs Deportivo Cuenca Liga Pro prediction & result

Estadio 9 de Mayo, Machala
Referee: Gabriel Ismael Gonzalez Cordero
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Orense SC 0-0 Deportivo Cuenca.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Orense SC, 27% draw, 28% Deportivo Cuenca — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Orense SC at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Orense SC5%Draw92%Deportivo Cuenca3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

57'
🔁Jeremy Chaconout: Yeltzin Erique
64'
🔁Melvin Diazout: Jeremy Mejía
65'
🔁Germán Riveroout: Cristhian Benalcazar
🔁Ángel Menaout: J. Valencia
65'
🔁Beder Caicedoout: Michael Alessandro Bermúdez Reyes
65'
🔁Erick Pluasout: Gonzalo Rostagno
73'
🔁Renny Jaramilloout: Nixon Molina
76'
82'
🔁Edison Vegaout: David Gonzalez
82'
🔁Eddie Guevaraout: Gian Nardelli
90+8'
Mateo Maccari

Match stats — Orense SC vs Deportivo Cuenca

58%Possession42%
13Shots5
6On target1
5Corners5
0.92xG0.25

Goals against chances

Orense SC0 from 0.92 xGless than the chances were worth
Deportivo Cuenca0 from 0.25 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Orense SC 3-4-3
  • 12R. SilvaG
  • 4M. QuiñonezD
  • 24G. AchilierD
  • 3Sixto Romario Mina ArroyoD
  • 31P. VelascoM
  • 25R. JaramilloM
  • 14E. PluasM
  • 15B. CaicedoM
  • 13Á. MenaF
  • 11A. HerreraF
  • 77B. ViñánF
Substitutes
  • 26N. MolinaM
  • 57S. MairongoM
  • 22J. OrtizG
  • 51C. OrtízM
  • 2B. QuiñonezD
  • 21G. RostagnoM
  • 88J. ValenciaF
  • 19Michael Alessandro Bermúdez ReyesF
  • 6S. CallegariD
Coach: J. Buch
Deportivo Cuenca 5-3-2
  • 1F. FerreroG
  • 43J. OrdoñezD
  • 23E. GuevaraD
  • 28P. BoolsenD
  • 6S. PostelD
  • 37C. ArboledaD
  • 14J. ChacónM
  • 30M. MaccariM
  • 8É. VegaM
  • 11G. RiveroF
  • 19Melvin Fabricio Díaz CanenciaF
Substitutes
  • 50Jostin Missael Caicedo Solis
  • 53Yeltzin Hernán Erique VilliguaD
  • 49David GonzálezM
  • 29M. KlimowiczF
  • 25Marcos Andrés López CabreraD
  • 7Lucas Eduardo MancinelliF
  • 16J. MejiaM
  • 12Ethan Gabriel Minda HumananteG
  • 3G. NardelliD
Coach: A. Yllana

Liga Pro table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Orense SC36109174353-1039
11Deportivo Cuenca36138153342-947

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Orense SC vs Deportivo Cuenca

  • 16 August 2026Orense SC 2–0 Deportivo CuencaLiga Pro
  • 22 April 2026Deportivo Cuenca 1–3 Orense SCLiga Pro
  • 31 August 2025Deportivo Cuenca 1–1 Orense SCLiga Pro
  • 10 May 2025Orense SC 1–0 Deportivo CuencaLiga Pro
  • 10 August 2024Deportivo Cuenca 1–2 Orense SCLiga Pro

Leading scorers: Orense SC and Deportivo Cuenca

Orense SC

GoalsAssists

  • A. Herrera123

Deportivo Cuenca

No player in Liga Pro's leading scorers — 33 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Orense SC and Deportivo Cuenca drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Orense SC at 45% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.92–0.25.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Orense SC a 11.9% chance to win the league: 16.7% after a win, 7.6% after a draw, 4.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 7.6%, 4.3 points lower than before the match.

For Deportivo Cuenca the question was the chance to win the league, 24.1% going in: 35.8% after a win, 23.8% after a draw, 17.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 23.8%.

Read from our Liga Pro season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Orense SC v Deportivo Cuenca has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 42% / 29% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 45% / 27% / 28%: the biggest move is Orense SC's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Orense SC win45%▲ +3
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Deportivo Cuenca win28%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.