5 September 2026, 15:30 UTC

Vasteras SK FK vs Sirius Allsvenskan prediction & result

Hitachi Energy Arena, Vasteras
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Vasteras SK FK 0-1 Sirius.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% Vasteras SK FK, 25% draw, 22% Sirius — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Vasteras SK FK at 53% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Vasteras SK FK0%Draw7%Sirius93%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Axel Sountonoma Taonsa
34'
philip bonde
44'
51'
⚽Jesper Uneken
63'
🔁Jesper Unekenout: Ake Andersson
🔁Bonaventure Lendambiout: Casper Risbjerg Andreasen
70'
🔁jens magnussonout: Abdelrahman Saidi
70'
🔁Mattias Hellisdalout: Ismet Lushaku
73'
76'
🔁Victor Svenssonout: N. Jönsson
76'
🔁Zalán Vancsaout: Charlie Nildén
83'
🔁Isak Bjerkeboout: Victor Ekstrom
🔁Mamadou Diagneout: karl gunnarsson
88'
🔁Simon Gefvertout: Jonny Melvin Ljungqvist
88'

Match stats — Vasteras SK FK vs Sirius

57%Possession43%
12Shots10
2On target4
8Corners2

Line-ups

Vasteras SK FK 3-4-3
  • 34E. JägerG
  • 24J. TagessonD
  • 4P. BondeD
  • 2H. MagnussonD
  • 11S. GefvertM
  • 30M. HellisdalM
  • 8M. DiagneM
  • 15J. KarlssonM
  • 19J. MagnussonF
  • 16Bonaventure LendambiF
  • 17A. TaonsaF
Substitutes
  • 7A. BoudahF
  • 23P. AmoranD
  • 22L. BarkD
  • 1A. FagerströmG
  • 5K. GunnarssonM
  • 20M. LjungqvistD
  • 14I. LushakuM
  • 9C. RisbjergF
  • 21V. WernerssonD
Coach: Alexander Rubin
Sirius 4-2-3-1
  • 34D. CelicG
  • 5H. CastegrenD
  • 15S. SandbergD
  • 4T. AnkerD
  • 22O. KrusnellD
  • 10M. HeierM
  • 6M. LindbergM
  • 30Z. VancsaM
  • 24V. SvenssonM
  • 11I. BjerkeboM
  • 9J. UnekenF
Substitutes
  • 29Ake AnderssonF
  • 1I. DiawaraG
  • 20V. EkströmD
  • 17N. JönssonF
  • 16O. LiimattaM
  • 27B. MagnussonD
  • 21C. NildénM
  • 7J. PerssonF
  • 25O. AdinduF
Coach: Andreas Engelmark

Form going into Vasteras SK FK vs Sirius

Vasteras SK FK

  • W3-1away to BK Hacken29 August 2026
  • D0-0Kalmar FF23 August 2026
  • L0-3away to IF Elfsborg14 August 2026

Sirius

  • L0-1Malmo FF31 August 2026
  • L0-3BK Hacken21 August 2026
  • L3-4away to Mjallby AIF15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Vasteras SK FK219573235-332
1Sirius2115335027+2348

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Vasteras SK FK vs Sirius

  • 5 September 2026Vasteras SK FK 0–1 SiriusAllsvenskan
  • 18 April 2026Sirius 4–1 Vasteras SK FKAllsvenskan
  • 31 August 2024Vasteras SK FK 1–2 SiriusAllsvenskan
  • 20 May 2024Sirius 0–0 Vasteras SK FKAllsvenskan
  • 3 February 2024Sirius 1–3 Vasteras SK FKFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Vasteras SK FK and Sirius

Vasteras SK FK

  • M. Ladefoged9 goals2 assists
  • A. Taonsa6 goals

Sirius

  • R. Ure15 goals2 assists
  • I. Bjerkebo13 goals5 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.