4 September 2026, 18:30 UTC

VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln Bundesliga prediction & result

MHPArena, Stuttgart
Full time4 – 1

Final score: VfB Stuttgart 4-1 1. FC Köln.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% VfB Stuttgart, 29% draw, 32% 1. FC Köln — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

VfB Stuttgart at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

VfB Stuttgart99%Draw1%1. FC Köln0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Bilal El Khannoussassist: Josha Vagnoman
39'
41'
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
45'
🔁Paul Okon-Engstlerout: Ellyes Skhiri
45'
🔁Jan Thielmannout: Mikey Moore
Maximilian Mittelstädt
51'
⚽Grischa Prömelassist: Maximilian Mittelstädt
60'
🔁Chris Führichout: Jamie Leweling
70'
🔁Deniz Undavout: Ermedin Demirović
70'
75'
🔁Ragnar Acheout: Marius Bülter
75'
🔁Linton Mainaout: Reigan Heskey
⚽Ermedin Demirovićassist: Finn Jeltsch
75'
🔁Bilal El Khannoussout: Leo Sauer
78'
🔁Maximilian Mittelstädtout: Ramon Hendriks
78'
81'
⚽Marius Bülter
85'
Tom Krauß
86'
Alessio Castro-Montes
90'
🔁Tom Kraußout: Imad Rondić
⚽Josha Vagnoman
90'
🔁Angelo Stillerout: Yanik Spalt
90+2'

Match stats — VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln

58%Possession42%
22Shots18
8On target5
10Corners8

Line-ups

VfB Stuttgart 4-4-2
  • 1F. BredlowG
  • 4J. VagnomanD
  • 29Finn JeltschD
  • 24J. ChabotD
  • 7M. MittelstädtD
  • 11B. El KhannoussM
  • 21G. PrömelM
  • 6A. StillerM
  • 10C. FührichM
  • 17D. PejčinovićF
  • 26D. UndavF
Substitutes
  • 3R. HendriksD
  • 47Y. SpaltM
  • 16A. KarazorM
  • 44L. SauerF
  • 18J. LewelingF
  • 2A. Al DakhilD
  • 9E. DemirovićF
  • 20L. StergiouD
  • 33M. FunkG
Coach: S. Hoeneb
1. FC Köln 4-3-3
  • 1M. SchwäbeG
  • 17A. Castro-MontesD
  • 22Jahmai Simpson-PuseyD
  • 24L. LochoshviliD
  • 14G. MensahD
  • 8Í. Bergmann JóhannessonM
  • 5T. KraußM
  • 23Paul Michael Junior Okon-EngstlerM
  • 29J. ThielmannF
  • 9R. AcheF
  • 37L. MainaF
Substitutes
  • 11Reigan HeskeyF
  • 15I. RondićF
  • 2J. SchmiedD
  • 6E. SkhiriM
  • 3B. SosaD
  • 33R. van den BergD
  • 20R. ZielerG
  • 30M. BülterF
  • 47M. MooreF
Coach: René Wagner

Form going into VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln

VfB Stuttgart

All competitions we cover

  • L1-5away to Bayern München28 August 2026

1. FC Köln

All competitions we cover

  • W3-21899 Hoffenheim29 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8VfB Stuttgart94051515012
151. FC Köln92341014-49

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln

  • 14 February 2026VfB Stuttgart 3–1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
  • 28 September 20251. FC Köln 1–2 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
  • 24 February 2024VfB Stuttgart 1–1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
  • 30 September 20231. FC Köln 0–2 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
  • 18 February 2023VfB Stuttgart 3–0 1. FC KölnBundesliga

The full VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln record →

Leading scorers: VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln

VfB Stuttgart

GoalsAssists

  • E. Demirović50

1. FC Köln

No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

VfB Stuttgart beat 1. FC Köln 4–1. The model had made a win for VfB Stuttgart its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Bilal El Khannouss 39' for VfB Stuttgart, Grischa Prömel 60' for VfB Stuttgart, Ermedin Demirović 75' for VfB Stuttgart, Marius Bülter 81' for 1. FC Köln, Josha Vagnoman 90' for VfB Stuttgart.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.