4 September 2026, 18:30 UTC

VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln Bundesliga prediction & result

MHPArena, Stuttgart
Full time4 – 1

Final score: VfB Stuttgart 4-1 1. FC Köln.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% VfB Stuttgart, 29% draw, 32% 1. FC Köln — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts VfB Stuttgart at 39% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1772 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

VfB Stuttgart99%Draw1%1. FC Köln0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Bilal El Khannoussassist: Josha Vagnoman
39'
41'
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
45'
🔁Paul Okon-Engstlerout: Ellyes Skhiri
45'
🔁Jan Thielmannout: Mikey Moore
Maximilian Mittelstädt
51'
⚽Grischa Prömelassist: Maximilian Mittelstädt
60'
🔁Chris Führichout: Jamie Leweling
70'
🔁Deniz Undavout: Ermedin Demirović
70'
75'
🔁Ragnar Acheout: Marius Bülter
75'
🔁Linton Mainaout: Reigan Heskey
⚽Ermedin Demirovićassist: Finn Jeltsch
75'
🔁Bilal El Khannoussout: Leo Sauer
78'
🔁Maximilian Mittelstädtout: Ramon Hendriks
78'
81'
⚽Marius Bülter
85'
Tom Krauß
86'
Alessio Castro-Montes
90'
🔁Tom Kraußout: Imad Rondić
⚽Josha Vagnoman
90'
🔁Angelo Stillerout: Yanik Spalt
90+2'

Match stats — VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln

58%Possession42%
22Shots18
8On target5
10Corners8

Line-ups

VfB Stuttgart 4-4-2
  • 1F. BredlowG
  • 4J. VagnomanD
  • 29Finn JeltschD
  • 24J. ChabotD
  • 7M. MittelstädtD
  • 11B. El KhannoussM
  • 21G. PrömelM
  • 6A. StillerM
  • 10C. FührichM
  • 17D. PejčinovićF
  • 26D. UndavF
Substitutes
  • 3R. HendriksD
  • 47Y. SpaltM
  • 16A. KarazorM
  • 44L. SauerF
  • 18J. LewelingF
  • 2A. Al DakhilD
  • 9E. DemirovićF
  • 20L. StergiouD
  • 33M. FunkG
Coach: S. Hoeneb
1. FC Köln 4-3-3
  • 1M. SchwäbeG
  • 17A. Castro-MontesD
  • 22Jahmai Simpson-PuseyD
  • 24L. LochoshviliD
  • 14G. MensahD
  • 8Í. Bergmann JóhannessonM
  • 5T. KraußM
  • 23Paul Michael Junior Okon-EngstlerM
  • 29J. ThielmannF
  • 9R. AcheF
  • 37L. MainaF
Substitutes
  • 11Reigan HeskeyF
  • 15I. RondićF
  • 2J. SchmiedD
  • 6E. SkhiriM
  • 3B. SosaD
  • 33R. van den BergD
  • 20R. ZielerG
  • 30M. BülterF
  • 47M. MooreF
Coach: René Wagner

Form going into VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln

VfB Stuttgart

  • L1-5away to Bayern München28 August 2026

1. FC Köln

  • W3-21899 Hoffenheim29 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14VfB Stuttgart310268-23
121. FC Köln311157-24

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln

  • 4 September 2026VfB Stuttgart 4–1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
  • 14 February 2026VfB Stuttgart 3–1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
  • 28 September 20251. FC Köln 1–2 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
  • 24 February 2024VfB Stuttgart 1–1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
  • 30 September 20231. FC Köln 0–2 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
  • 18 February 2023VfB Stuttgart 3–0 1. FC KölnBundesliga

Leading scorers: VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln

VfB Stuttgart

  • J. Vagnoman2 goals1 assists

1. FC Köln

No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.