Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Red Bull Salzburg 5-1 Rapid Vienna.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Red Bull Salzburg, 28% draw, 34% Rapid Vienna — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Red Bull Salzburg at 38% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna
Line-ups
- 52C. ZawieschitzkyG
- 18N. VeratschnigD
- 44K. BomaD
- 47V. ZabranskyD
- 31D. SchmidD
- 32A. BarryM
- 15B. MazurekM
- 20E. BaidooM
- 8S. KitanoM
- 11Y. VertessenM
- 9H. TabakovicF
- 1C. FruchtlG
- 21T. DrexlerD
- 39L. MorgallaD
- 13F. KratzigD
- 4J. MellbergD
- 7U. TohumcuM
- 19K. KonateF
- 43E. AguilarF
- 33A. Camara
- 1N. HedlG
- 77B. BollaD
- 55N. CvetkovicD
- 6S. Raux-YaoD
- 38J. HornD
- 22Y. DemirM
- 18M. SeidlM
- 30N. BajliczM
- 43M. HaidaraF
- 9E. KaraF
- 8T. AdamsenF
- 25P. GartlerG
- 61F. DemirD
- 2E. RokaD
- 47A. GrollerD
- 21L. SchaubM
- 15N. WurmbrandF
- 10P. DahlF
- 71C. M'BuyiF
- 7M. TilioF
Form going into Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna
Red Bull Salzburg
- W4-1Austria Vienna30 August 2026
- W3-0away to WSG Wattens16 August 2026
- D1-1away to Wolfsberger AC9 August 2026
Rapid Vienna
- W3-1Sturm Graz30 August 2026
- W8-0Grazer AK16 August 2026
- W2-1away to Ried9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Red Bull Salzburg | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 14 |
| 2 | Rapid Vienna | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna
- 2 September 2026Red Bull Salzburg 5–1 Rapid ViennaBundesliga
- 26 April 2026Rapid Vienna 1–0 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
- 15 March 2026Red Bull Salzburg 0–1 Rapid ViennaBundesliga
- 8 March 2026Rapid Vienna 1–0 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
- 5 October 2025Red Bull Salzburg 2–1 Rapid ViennaBundesliga
- 24 May 2025Red Bull Salzburg 4–2 Rapid ViennaBundesliga
Leading scorers: Red Bull Salzburg and Rapid Vienna
Red Bull Salzburg
- K. Konaté4 goals
- H. Tabaković3 goals
- Y. Vertessen2 goals1 assists
Rapid Vienna
- T. Adamsen4 goals1 assists
- P. Dahl3 goals
- Y. Demir2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.