VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05 DFB Pokal prediction & result
Final score: VfL Bochum 2-0 FSV Mainz 05.
Before kick-off the model made it 24% VfL Bochum, 28% draw, 48% FSV Mainz 05 — fair odds of 4.17, 3.57 and 2.08.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
FSV Mainz 05 at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1T. HornG
- 2S. KlaiberD
- 15M. SteinwenderD
- 5K. MetsD
- 32M. WittekD
- 24M. PannewigM
- 34T. MeyerM
- 14J. SteuckersM
- 10B. TazM
- 17G. HoltmannM
- 7C. RasmussenF
- 16T. CasaliG
- 19D. HanslikF
- 33P. HofmannF
- 39L. IsbruchM
- 4Y. KarademirD
- 23K. MiyoshiM
- 29M. Ouro-TagbaF
- 28C. PatinoM
- 31L. SawasD
- 1A. SchwolowG
- 21D. da CostaD
- 4S. PoschD
- 48K. PotulskiD
- 30S. WidmerM
- 8P. NebelM
- 6K. SanoM
- 7Lee Jae-SungM
- 2P. MweneM
- 23S. BeckerF
- 9P. TietzF
- 47R. NakuzolaD
- 5E. MartelM
- 15L. MaloneyM
- 11R. KönigsdörfferF
- 24S. KawasakiM
- 17B. HollerbachF
- 3F. GruberD
- 19A. CaciD
- 27R. ZentnerG
Form going into VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05
VfL Bochum
2. Bundesliga
- D1-1VfL Wolfsburg23 October 2026
- L0-2away to 1. FC Kaiserslautern17 October 2026
- L0-1Arminia Bielefeld11 October 2026
FSV Mainz 05
Bundesliga
- L2-3Werder Bremen24 October 2026
- W1-0away to FC Schalke 0417 October 2026
- L3-4Bayer Leverkusen10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
VfL Bochum and FSV Mainz 05 in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | VfL Bochum | 2. Bundesliga | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 14 |
| 12 | FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 10 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: 2. Bundesliga · Bundesliga
Head-to-head: VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05
- 10 May 2025VfL Bochum 1–4 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
- 11 January 2025FSV Mainz 05 2–0 VfL BochumBundesliga
- 16 March 2024FSV Mainz 05 2–0 VfL BochumBundesliga
- 27 October 2023VfL Bochum 2–2 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
- 28 January 2023FSV Mainz 05 5–2 VfL BochumBundesliga
- 6 August 2022VfL Bochum 1–2 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Leading scorers: VfL Bochum and FSV Mainz 05
VfL Bochum
GoalsAssists
- P. Hofmann50
FSV Mainz 05
GoalsAssists
- P. Tietz60
- A. Caci33
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
VfL Bochum beat FSV Mainz 05 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for FSV Mainz 05 at 48% and given a win for VfL Bochum 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Christian Theodor Kjelder Rasmussen 46' for VfL Bochum, Philipp Hofmann 75' for VfL Bochum. On expected goals it finished 1.44–0.52.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.