27 October 2026, 18:15 UTC

Al Shamal vs Al-Hilal AFC Champions League Elite prediction & result

Al Bayt Stadium, Al Khor
Referee: Kassem Matar Al Hatmi
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Al Shamal 3-1 Al-Hilal.

Before kick-off the model made it 14% Al Shamal, 20% draw, 66% Al-Hilal — fair odds of 7.14, 5.00 and 1.52.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al-Hilal at 66%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al Shamal99%Draw1%Al-Hilal0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Wesley Saïdassist: Mohamed Ali Ben Romdhane
8'
32'
⚽Salem Al-Dawsariassist: Theo Hernandez
Baghdad Bounedjah
37'
🔁Jeison Murilloout: Nassim Benaissa
45'
Michel Termanini
45+3'
⚽Baghdad Bounedjahassist: Riyad Mahrez
48'
Wesley Saïd
52'
⚽Mohamed Ali Ben Romdhaneassist: Riyad Mahrez
54'
60'
🔁Theo Hernandezout: Kalidou Koulibaly
60'
🔁Murad Al Hawsawiout: Nasser Al-Dawsari
60'
🔁Mohamed Kader Meïtéout: Ollie Watkins
68'
🔁Sabri Dahalout: Sultan Mandash
70'
Simone Inzaghi
71'
Kalidou Koulibaly
81'
🔁Moteb Al-Harbiout: Nawaf Al-Habashi
🔁Wesley Saïdout: Abdelkarim Hassan
83'
🔁Riyad Mahrezout: Mowafak Awad
89'
🔁Tiago Silvaout: Ahmed Suhail
89'
Ahmed Suhail
90+1'
Abdelkarim Hassan
90+4'

Match stats — Al Shamal vs Al-Hilal

42%Possession58%
12Shots7
6On target4
4Corners1
2.41xG1.53

Goals against chances

Al Shamal3 from 2.41 xGmore than the chances were worth
Al-Hilal1 from 1.53 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al Shamal 4-2-3-1
  • 95B. SeckG
  • 20Y. SabalyD
  • 24J. MurilloD
  • 4Pablo MaríD
  • 16F. BaisD
  • 23Michel TermaniniM
  • 70Tiago SilvaM
  • 26R. MahrezM
  • 5M. Ben RomdhaneM
  • 22W. SaïdM
  • 11B. BounedjahF
Substitutes
  • 14Omar AliF
  • 67Saoud Al KhaterG
  • 8Ali AsadM
  • 2Moufak AwadD
  • 28N. BenaïssaM
  • 45Abdullah El RadyG
  • 3Abdelkarim HassanD
  • 6Musab KhoderD
  • 37Ahmed SuhailD
Coach: David Prats
Al-Hilal 4-4-2
  • 33Mohammed Al OwaisG
  • 72S. DahalD
  • 78Ali LajamiD
  • 4Yusuf AkçiçekD
  • 24Moteb Al HarbiD
  • 70Saïmon BouabréM
  • 18Murad Al HawsawiM
  • 28Mohamed KannoM
  • 19T. HernándezM
  • 29Salem Al DawsariF
  • 75M. MeïtéF
Substitutes
  • 55M. Al DawoodD
  • 11O. WatkinsF
  • 87Hassan TambaktiD
  • 27Sultan MandashF
  • 3K. KoulibalyD
  • 37Y. BounouG
  • 96Suhayb Al ZaidM
  • 73Mohamed Al-SarnukhD
  • 17Mohammed Al YamiG
Coach: S. Inzaghi

Form going into Al Shamal vs Al-Hilal

Al Shamal

AFC Champions League Elite

  • D0-0away to Tractor Sazi12 October 2026
  • D1-1Al-Ittihad14 September 2026

Al-Hilal

AFC Champions League Elite

  • W2-0away to Al Sadd13 October 2026
  • W2-1Al-Gharafa15 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

AFC Champions League Elite table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Al Shamal412143+15
2Al-Hilal430174+39

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Al Shamal and Al-Hilal

Al Shamal

No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Al-Hilal

GoalsAssists

  • O. Watkins30

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al Shamal beat Al-Hilal 3–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Al-Hilal at 66% and given a win for Al Shamal 14%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 7 matches like this one. The goals: Wesley Saïd 8' for Al Shamal, Salem Al-Dawsari 32' for Al-Hilal, Baghdad Bounedjah 48' for Al Shamal, Mohamed Ali Ben Romdhane 54' for Al Shamal. On expected goals it finished 2.41–1.53.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.