Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Esteghlal FC AFC Champions League Elite prediction & result
Final score: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2-0 Esteghlal FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, 28% draw, 25% Esteghlal FC — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Esteghlal FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 33Matheus DonelliG
- 75Mateus HenriqueD
- 3Igor GomesD
- 4W. FaesD
- 31Kauan SantosD
- 6S. EzatolahiM
- 88N. MaksimovićM
- 24J. MarkeloM
- 80Breno CascardoM
- 8Mohammad JumaM
- 20S. AzmounF
- 21Sultan AdilF
- 1Rakaan WaleedG
- 10F. CartabiaM
- 44Jorge FernandesD
- 5E. IralaM
- 79João MarceloF
- 55Juan AlvinaF
- 19MateusãoF
- 16RikelmeD
- 76H. Far AbbasiG
- 6S. FallahD
- 33A. AghasiD
- 5R. AshurmatovD
- 2Saleh HardaniM
- 4R. CheshmiM
- 8A. RazzaghiniaM
- 27H. GoudarziM
- 7J. AsaniF
- 11S. SaharkhizanF
- 87E. SaitmuratovF
- 18A. ZoleikhaeiD
- 15A. ZamaniM
- 10J. MasharipovM
- 60S. HosseinifarG
- 80M. EslamiM
- 88M. AhmadiM
- 26Mohammad Mehdi Ghayedi HeydariM
- 45Hossein GharloghiD
- 36Alireza MohebaliM
Form going into Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Esteghlal FC
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
AFC Champions League Elite
- W2-1away to Al-Ittihad13 October 2026
- W1-0Tractor Sazi14 September 2026
Esteghlal FC
AFC Champions League Elite
- W2-1away to Al-Gharafa12 October 2026
- W3-0Al Sadd14 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 9 |
| 3 | Esteghlal FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Esteghlal FC
- 25 April 2017Esteghlal FC 1–1 Shabab Al Ahli DubaiAFC Champions League
- 20 February 2017Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2–1 Esteghlal FCAFC Champions League
Leading scorers: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Esteghlal FC
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
GoalsAssists
- S. Azmoun22
Esteghlal FC
GoalsAssists
- J. Asani31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Esteghlal FC 2–0. The model had made a win for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Mateus Dias Lima 69' for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, Juan Alvina 84' for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. On expected goals it finished 1.23–0.49.
How the call on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai v Esteghlal FC has moved
First published on 13 Oct at 45% / 28% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 47% / 28% / 25%: the biggest move is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win47%▲ +2
- Draw28%=
- Esteghlal FC win25%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.