VfL Osnabrück vs Hertha BSC 2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: VfL Osnabrück 1-3 Hertha BSC.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% VfL Osnabrück, 29% draw, 30% Hertha BSC — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts VfL Osnabrück at 41% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — VfL Osnabrück vs Hertha BSC
Line-ups
- 32J. KrumreyG
- 27R. FabinskiD
- 24J. MüllerD
- 25N. WiemannD
- 31P. KammerbauerM
- 26F. WagnerM
- 15B. JacobsenM
- 42J. GómezM
- 21A. BeckM
- 8L. MünstM
- 11R. MeißnerF
- 1N. SauterG
- 22B. RiesselmannF
- 17L. RaimundF
- 19L. OpitzM
- 23T. LesueurF
- 7D. KyerehM
- 20T. JanottaD
- 28K. FaberD
- 4J. Abu HannaD
- 35M. GersbeckG
- 2J. EitschbergerD
- 44L. GechterD
- 27N. KolbeD
- 22M. PedersenD
- 41P. KlemensM
- 8K. SessaM
- 23J. ÞorsteinssonM
- 19O. AdewumiM
- 7J. BrekaloM
- 17S. GrønningF
- 47Selim TelibM
- 42D. ZeefuikD
- 20Farid Alfa-RuprechtF
- 31M. DárdaiD
- 29J. DialloD
- 43T. GollerG
- 33S. GouramM
- 9G. NilssonF
- 18L. SchulerF
Form going into VfL Osnabrück vs Hertha BSC
VfL Osnabrück
- W3-1Eintracht Braunschweig6 September 2026
- W1-0away to VfL Bochum28 August 2026
- L0-31. FC Magdeburg15 August 2026
- L3-4away to 1. FC Heidenheim8 August 2026
Hertha BSC
- W2-11. FC Magdeburg6 September 2026
- W5-3away to Eintracht Braunschweig28 August 2026
- W4-11. FC Heidenheim15 August 2026
- W1-0away to VfL Bochum7 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | VfL Osnabrück | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 |
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: VfL Osnabrück vs Hertha BSC
- 13 September 2026VfL Osnabrück 1–3 Hertha BSC2. Bundesliga
- 19 May 2024VfL Osnabruck 2–1 Hertha Berlin2. Bundesliga
- 16 December 2023Hertha Berlin 0–0 VfL Osnabruck2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: VfL Osnabrück and Hertha BSC
VfL Osnabrück
No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Hertha BSC
- J. Brekalo4 goals2 assists
- O. Adewumi3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.