1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel 2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: 1. FC Heidenheim 1-0 Holstein Kiel.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% 1. FC Heidenheim, 26% draw, 21% Holstein Kiel — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts 1. FC Heidenheim at 53% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 634 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel
Line-ups
- 33T. DähneG
- 2M. BuschD
- 6P. MainkaD
- 19J. FöhrenbachD
- 27M. HeuleD
- 22O. MhamdiM
- 16J. NiehuesM
- 3J. SchöppnerM
- 24M. CostlyM
- 18A. VogtF
- 17M. HonsakF
- 38Y. WagnerF
- 41M. ZrilicM
- 10C. ContehF
- 1Frank FellerG
- 8P. HennrichM
- 29M. KaufmannF
- 20L. KerberM
- 23L. PaqaradaD
- 4T. SierslebenD
- 1T. WeinerG
- 32H. SekineD
- 13I. NekićD
- 26D. ZecD
- 40Leon ParduziD
- 28J. MeffertM
- 20A. KaprálikM
- 8G. BalziM
- 27I. UgohM
- 10J. TherkelsenM
- 19P. HarresF
- 5N. MadsenD
- 44Mark Richter MonserratM
- 41Lio RothenhagenG
- 7S. SkrzybskiF
- 3Niko Takahashi CendagortaD
- 30T. TasdelenM
- 47J. TolkinD
- 43T. WieseM
- 11G. de RegtF
Form going into 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel
1. FC Heidenheim
- W1-0away to SpVgg Greuther Fürth6 September 2026
- W5-3Dynamo Dresden29 August 2026
- L1-4away to Hertha BSC15 August 2026
- W4-3VfL Osnabrück8 August 2026
Holstein Kiel
- D2-21. FC Nürnberg5 September 2026
- L0-2away to 1. FC Magdeburg30 August 2026
- D2-2FC St. Pauli14 August 2026
- D2-2away to SV Darmstadt 988 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 12 |
| 18 | Holstein Kiel | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel
- 13 September 20261. FC Heidenheim 1–0 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
- 16 March 20251. FC Heidenheim 3–1 Holstein KielBundesliga
- 2 November 2024Holstein Kiel 1–0 1. FC HeidenheimBundesliga
- 23 April 2023FC Heidenheim 3–0 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
- 16 October 2022Holstein Kiel 3–1 FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
- 23 April 2022Holstein Kiel 1–1 FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: 1. FC Heidenheim and Holstein Kiel
1. FC Heidenheim
- J. Schöppner3 goals
Holstein Kiel
- P. Harres3 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.