13 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Viking vs Bayern München UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Lyse Arena, Stavanger
Referee: Georgi Nikolov Kabakov
Full time3 – 3

Final score: Viking 3-3 Bayern München.

Before kick-off the model made it 27% Viking, 24% draw, 49% Bayern München — fair odds of 3.70, 4.17 and 2.04.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bayern München at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Viking0%Draw6%Bayern München94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Gianni Stensnessassist: Zlatko Tripić
2'
⚽Peter Christiansenassist: Erik Botheim
38'
45'
🔁Nathaniel Brownout: Alphonso Davies
45'
🔁Jonathan Tahout: Dayot Upamecano
45'
🔁Lennart Karlout: Ismael Saibari
52'
Konrad Laimer
52'
•Konrad Laimer
Kristoffer Haugen
53'
54'
⚽Harry Kane (pen)
🔁Kristoffer Haugenout: Jesper Daland
59'
60'
⚽Harry Kaneassist: Joshua Kimmich
Jesper Daland
67'
68'
Ismael Saibari
71'
⚽Luis Díazassist: Konrad Laimer
🔁Henrik Bjørdalout: Herman Haugen
72'
73'
Michael Olise
73'
Michael Olise
76'
🔁Luis Díazout: Josip Stanišić
83'
🔁Ismael Saibariout: Hiroki Ito
🔁Joe Bellout: Simen Kvia Egeskog
85'
🔁Henrik Heggheimout: Viljar Helland Vevatne
85'
🔁Erik Botheimout: Tobias Moi
85'
⚽Herman Haugenassist: Zlatko Tripić
90'

Match stats — Viking vs Bayern München

34%Possession66%
8Shots25
5On target8
5Corners15
0.64xG3.57

Goals against chances

Viking3 from 0.64 xGmore than the chances were worth
Bayern München3 from 3.57 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Viking 4-3-3
  • 1A. ØstbøG
  • 5H. HeggheimD
  • 6G. StensnessD
  • 25H. FalchenerD
  • 28K. HaugenD
  • 16H. BjørdalM
  • 8J. BellM
  • 7K. AskildsenM
  • 20P. ChristiansenF
  • 22E. BotheimF
  • 10Z. TripićF
Substitutes
  • 17E. BasseyD
  • 24Vetle AuklendD
  • 30Ľ. BelkoG
  • 19A. CosicF
  • 27J. DalandD
  • 23N. FuglestadF
  • 33J. HansenM
  • 2H. HaugenD
  • 26S. Kvia-EgeskogM
Coach: B. Aarsheim
Bayern München 4-2-3-1
  • 40J. UrbigG
  • 27K. LaimerD
  • 4J. TahD
  • 3Kim Min-JaeD
  • 11N. BrownD
  • 6J. KimmichM
  • 8T. BischofM
  • 17M. OliseM
  • 42L. KarlM
  • 14L. DíazM
  • 9H. KaneF
Substitutes
  • 2D. UpamecanoD
  • 26S. UlreichG
  • 44J. StanišićD
  • 39Bara NdiayeM
  • 34I. SaibariM
  • 38D. Podar-StiubeG
  • 45A. PavlovićM
  • 1M. NeuerG
  • 21H. ItoD
Coach: V. Kompany

Form going into Viking vs Bayern München

Viking

UEFA Champions League

  • L1-3away to VfB Stuttgart9 September 2026

Bayern München

UEFA Champions League

  • W5-0Bodo/Glimt10 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Champions League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
22Viking4112910-14
13Bayern München4220125+78

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Viking and Bayern München

Viking

GoalsAssists

  • Z. Tripić43

Bayern München

GoalsAssists

  • H. Kane43

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Viking and Bayern München drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for Bayern München at 49% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Gianni Stensness 2' for Viking, Peter Christiansen 38' for Viking, Harry Kane (penalty) 54' for Bayern München, Harry Kane 60' for Bayern München, Luis Díaz 71' for Bayern München, Herman Haugen 90' for Viking. Sent off: Michael Olise (Bayern München) 73'. On expected goals it finished 0.64–3.57.

How the call on Viking v Bayern München has moved

First published on 29 Sep at 25% / 25% / 50% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 27% / 24% / 49%: the biggest move is Viking's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Viking win27%▲ +2
  2. Draw24%▼ −1
  3. Bayern München win49%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.