13 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Villarreal vs Napoli UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Estadio de la Ceramica, Villarreal
Referee: Daniel Siebert
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Villarreal 3-1 Napoli.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Villarreal, 25% draw, 36% Napoli — fair odds of 2.56, 4.00 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Villarreal at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Villarreal99%Draw1%Napoli0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
⚽Amir Rrahmani
⚽Georges Mikautadze
23'
⚽Álvaro Santiago Mouriño Gonzálezassist: Gerard Moreno
26'
Georges Mikautadze
33'
55'
Giovane Santana Do Nascimento
60'
🔁Giovane Santana Do Nascimentoout: Noa Lang
60'
🔁Scott McTominayout: Leonardo Spinazzola
61'
🔁Matteo Politanoout: David Neres
62'
Kevin De Bruyne
🔁Gerard Morenoout: Tani Oluwaseyi
63'
🔁Georges Mikautadzeout: Alex Freeman
63'
Nathan-Dylan Saliba
67'
🔁Alberto Moleiroout: Juan Foyth
68'
72'
🔁Billy Gilmourout: Stanislav Lobotka
72'
🔁Rafael Marin Zamoraout: Lorenzo Lucca
🔁Santi Comesañaout: Ayoze Pérez
83'
🔁Pape Gueyeout: Sergi Cardona Bermúdez
84'
85'
Giovanni Di Lorenzo
⚽Tani Oluwaseyiassist: Ayoze Pérez
86'

Match stats — Villarreal vs Napoli

52%Possession48%
16Shots9
4On target2
4Corners4
1.33xG1.76

Goals against chances

Villarreal3 from 1.33 xGmore than the chances were worth
Napoli1 from 1.76 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Villarreal 4-4-2
  • 1Luíz JúniorG
  • 15S. MouriñoD
  • 6Pau NavarroD
  • 12Renato VeigaD
  • 20Carlos RomeroD
  • 24N. SalibaM
  • 14Santi ComesañaM
  • 18P. GueyeM
  • 10Alberto MoleiroM
  • 7Gerard MorenoF
  • 9G. MikautadzeF
Substitutes
  • 13Rubén GómezG
  • 3A. FreemanD
  • 8J. FoythD
  • 27N. El JmiliF
  • 5A. DiattaM
  • 2Logan CostaD
  • 23Sergi CardonaD
  • 11Ilias AkhomachF
  • 16C. MaciaM
Coach: Iñigo Pérez
Napoli 3-4-2-1
  • 32V. Milinković-SavićG
  • 16Rafa MarínD
  • 13Amir RrahmaniD
  • 5B. BadiashileD
  • 21M. PolitanoM
  • 6B. GilmourM
  • 8S. McTominayM
  • 22G. Di LorenzoM
  • 11K. De BruyneM
  • 23GiovaneM
  • 19R. HøjlundF
Substitutes
  • 37L. SpinazzolaD
  • 20L. LuccaF
  • 1A. MeretG
  • 31S. BeukemaD
  • 14N. ContiniG
  • 7David NeresF
  • 70N. LangF
  • 68S. LobotkaM
Coach: M. Allegri

Form going into Villarreal vs Napoli

Villarreal

UEFA Champions League

  • L2-3away to Borussia Dortmund8 September 2026

Napoli

UEFA Champions League

  • L0-1Arsenal9 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Champions League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
28Villarreal4103814-63
27Napoli4103611-53

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Villarreal vs Napoli

  • 17 December 2022Napoli 2–3 VillarrealFriendlies Clubs
  • 25 February 2016Napoli 1–1 VillarrealUEFA Europa League
  • 18 February 2016Villarreal 1–0 NapoliUEFA Europa League
  • 7 December 2011Villarreal 0–2 NapoliUEFA Champions League
  • 27 September 2011Napoli 2–0 VillarrealUEFA Champions League

The full Villarreal vs Napoli record →

The result against the call

Villarreal beat Napoli 3–1. The model had made a win for Villarreal its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Amir Rrahmani 8' for Napoli, Georges Mikautadze 23' for Villarreal, Álvaro Santiago Mouriño González 26' for Villarreal, Tani Oluwaseyi 86' for Villarreal. On expected goals it finished 1.33–1.76.

How the call on Villarreal v Napoli has moved

First published on 29 Sep at 40% / 26% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 39% / 25% / 36%: the biggest move is Napoli's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Villarreal win39%▼ −1
  2. Draw25%▼ −1
  3. Napoli win36%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.