RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: RB Leipzig 1-0 PSV Eindhoven.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% RB Leipzig, 23% draw, 27% PSV Eindhoven — fair odds of 2.00, 4.35 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
RB Leipzig at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 26M. VandevoordtG
- 17R. BakuD
- 4W. OrbánD
- 23C. LukebaD
- 22D. RaumD
- 21N. El AynaouiM
- 6E. BanzuziM
- 10B. GrudaM
- 28C. NkunkuM
- 7A. NusaM
- 40RômuloF
- 11J. BakayokoF
- 3M. EstèveD
- 35Max FinkgräfeD
- 27T. GomisF
- 39B. HenrichsD
- 16L. KlostermannD
- 2A. KonéD
- 30A. MaksimoviÄM
- 1Ø. NylandG
- 32M. KovářG
- 8S. DestD
- 2L. GeertruidaD
- 4A. ObispoD
- 18F. KostićD
- 24K. SanoM
- 17Mauro JúniorM
- 5I. PerišićM
- 20G. TilM
- 7R. van BommelM
- 21S. MijnansF
- 51T. SmolenaarsG
- 35A. SantosM
- 1N. OlijG
- 27D. ManF
- 3Yarek GasiorowskiD
- 6R. FlamingoD
- 31N. FernandezM
- 42S. CornecionM
- 23M. HansenF
Form going into RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven
RB Leipzig
UEFA Champions League
- L1-4away to Como10 September 2026
PSV Eindhoven
UEFA Champions League
- D1-1Shakhtar Donetsk10 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | RB Leipzig | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 |
| 24 | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
RB Leipzig beat PSV Eindhoven 1–0. The model had made a win for RB Leipzig its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Brajan Gruda 75' for RB Leipzig. On expected goals it finished 2.19–1.46.
How the call on RB Leipzig v PSV Eindhoven has moved
First published on 29 Sep at 44% / 25% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 50% / 23% / 27%: the biggest move is RB Leipzig's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- RB Leipzig win50%▲ +6
- Draw23%▼ −2
- PSV Eindhoven win27%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.