Lens vs Sporting CP UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Lens 0-2 Sporting CP.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Lens, 23% draw, 45% Sporting CP — fair odds of 3.13, 4.35 and 2.22.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Champions League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Sporting CP at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lens vs Sporting CP
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 40R. RisserG
- 25I. GaniouD
- 6S. BaidooD
- 32K. AntonioD
- 23Saud AbdulhamidM
- 27M. CuisanceM
- 21A. HaidaraM
- 14M. UdolM
- 10F. ThauvinM
- 28J. KadileM
- 29F. IvanovićF
- 2R. AguilarD
- 4N. ÄelikD
- 11O. ÉdouardF
- 16M. GorgelinG
- 9T. HazardM
- 31S. SagnanD
- 22M. SkóraśF
- 38M. SoaresM
- 7F. SotocaF
- 30KaiqueG
- 22Iván FresnedaD
- 72Eduardo QuaresmaD
- 25Gonçalo InácioD
- 20M. AraújoD
- 8João SimõesM
- 5Sergi AltimiraM
- 77I. DoumbiaM
- 10Geny CatamoF
- 97L. SuárezF
- 19N. IrankundaF
- 18M. ZekriD
- 55Ibrahima BaD
- 13G. VagiannidisD
- 1Rui SilvaG
- 21Pedro LimaM
- 9Rafael Ferreira NelF
- 31Luis GuilhermeF
- 7F. IoannidisF
- 58Flávio GonçalvesF
Form going into Lens vs Sporting CP
Lens
UEFA Champions League
- W3-2away to Slavia Praha10 September 2026
Sporting CP
UEFA Champions League
- W3-1Galatasaray9 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | Lens | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 16 | -12 | 3 |
| 10 | Sporting CP | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Lens and Sporting CP
Lens
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Sporting CP
GoalsAssists
- L. Suárez40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sporting CP won 2–0 at Lens. The model had made a win for Sporting CP its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Luis Suárez 22' for Sporting CP, Issa Doumbia 74' for Sporting CP. On expected goals it finished 1.59–1.73.
How the call on Lens v Sporting CP has moved
First published on 29 Sep at 33% / 25% / 42% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 32% / 23% / 45%: the biggest move is Sporting CP's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Lens win32%▼ −1
- Draw23%▼ −2
- Sporting CP win45%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.