Deportivo Riestra
vs
Lanus
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Deportivo Riestra 0-3 Lanus.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Deportivo Riestra, 30% draw, 38% Lanus — fair odds of 3.13, 3.33 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Deportivo Riestra 1.14, Lanus 1.37.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Deportivo Riestra vs Lanus
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lanus at 38% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1764 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Deportivo Riestra vs Lanus
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1I. ArceG
- 36M. BracamonteD
- 15N. SansotreD
- 22C. PazD
- 2C. QuintanaD
- 5P. RamirezD
- 27J. GoitiaM
- 8M. CelizM
- 7A. AlonsoM
- 11A. DiazF
- 9N. BenegasF
- 23M. ArzamendiaG
- 4Murillo YaisonD
- 13R. GalloD
- 16N. WatsonM
- 14P. MonjeM
- 20T. LauroM
- 18B. PerezM
- 29A. GranerosF
- 35A. StringaF
- 26N. LosadaG
- 4G. PerezD
- 24C. IzquierdozD
- 13J. CanaleD
- 6S. MarcichD
- 5F. Pena BiaforeM
- 30A. CardozoM
- 16M. SepulvedaM
- 11E. SalvioM
- 77L. BesozziM
- 20A. WlkF
- 1F. PetroliG
- 39T. LaplaceM
- 35R. De JesusD
- 3N. MorgantiniD
- 33T. GuidaraD
- 27F. SanchezD
- 40T. LopezD
- 8F. N. WatsonM
- 17A. MedinaM
Form going into Deportivo Riestra vs Lanus
Deportivo Riestra
- D1-1away to Platense4 September 2026
- D1-1Velez Sarsfield29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Huracan23 August 2026
- L0-2away to Newell's Old Boys15 August 2026
Lanus
- W1-0Defensa Y Justicia6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Boca Juniors29 August 2026
- D1-1Argentinos Juniors25 August 2026
- L1-3Independiente17 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Deportivo Riestra | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 9 |
| 7 | Lanus | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportivo Riestra vs Lanus
- 14 September 2026Deportivo Riestra 0–3 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
- 2 May 2026Lanus 0–0 Deportivo RiestraLiga Profesional Argentina
- 14 July 2025Deportivo Riestra 1–0 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
- 24 January 2025Lanus 0–2 Deportivo RiestraLiga Profesional Argentina
- 9 August 2024Deportivo Riestra 3–1 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Deportivo Riestra and Lanus
Deportivo Riestra
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Lanus
- D. Aquino6 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.14 goals for Deportivo Riestra and 1.37 for Lanus; the game produced 0 and 3.
Goals
Scorers, in order: A. Wlk 11' (Lanus), A. Wlk 69' (Lanus), F. Pena Biafore 74' (Lanus).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lanus the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Deportivo Riestra against 1.37 for Lanus. Deportivo Riestra's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.07/0.99 for Lanus.