Clausura - 9 · 14 September 2026, 22:00 UTC

Banfield vs Barracas Central Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Florencio Sola, Buenos Aires
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Banfield 1-1 Barracas Central.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Banfield, 29% draw, 34% Barracas Central — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Banfield 1.48, Barracas Central 1.38.

Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published · updated

Model insights: Banfield vs Barracas Central

58%
Both teams to score
54%
Over 2.5 goals
46%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 12%2-1 9%1-2 8%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Banfield at 37% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1764 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Banfield4%Draw91%Barracas Central5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽L. Gomezassist: S. Lopez
45'
46'
🔁D. Martinezout: R. Barrios
59'
🔁K. Jappertout: E. Taborda
59'
🔁E. Pereyraout: R. Insua
62'
⚽I. Tapia (pen)
69'
•Norberto Briasco
🔁S. Lopezout: F. Medina
73'
76'
🔁T. Porraout: N. Capraro
Tomas Adoryan
78'
🔁T. Adoryanout: F. Alvarez
79'
🔁L. Gomezout: L. Pinero
79'
85'
🔁N. Briascoout: J. Candia
🔁A. Machadoout: M. Hernandez
87'
Favio Álvarez
88'

Match stats — Banfield vs Barracas Central

37%Possession63%
8Shots10
4On target3
1Corners6
0.53xG1.28

Goals against chances

Banfield1 from 0.53 xGabout what the chances were worth
Barracas Central1 from 1.28 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Banfield 3-5-2
  • 50D. RodriguezG
  • 13B. OviedoD
  • 2S. DanieleD
  • 6N. MerianoD
  • 24S. LopezM
  • 10L. GomezM
  • 5S. EsquivelM
  • 20T. AdoryanM
  • 27I. AbrahamM
  • 22A. MachadoF
  • 9A. BalboaF
Substitutes
  • 25G. SantilliG
  • 3N. PazD
  • 19L. CanoD
  • 37R. MalancaD
  • 21L. VillegasM
  • 35N. PaisM
  • 11F. AlvarezM
  • 30F. AnselmoF
  • 40D. ZalazarF
Coach: Pedro Troglio
Barracas Central 5-3-2
  • 30M. MinoG
  • 4D. MartinezD
  • 14K. JappertD
  • 15Y. RakD
  • 31N. DemartiniD
  • 17E. PereyraD
  • 8T. PorraM
  • 5D. MilocM
  • 10I. TapiaM
  • 11N. BriascoF
  • 33G. MaroniF
Substitutes
  • 43L. Fernandez
  • 37G. CampiD
  • 13R. BarriosD
  • 2N. CapraroD
  • 28R. BogarinM
  • 35E. RolonM
  • 24E. TabordaF
  • 20J. CandiaF
  • 77F. BrueraF
Coach: Damian Ayude

Form going into Banfield vs Barracas Central

Banfield

  • L1-3away to Aldosivi5 September 2026
  • L2-3River Plate30 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Newell's Old Boys23 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Racing Club14 August 2026
  • L0-2Belgrano Cordoba10 August 2026

Barracas Central

  • D0-0Argentinos Juniors7 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Tigre1 September 2026
  • L1-2Platense23 August 2026
  • L0-1Rosario Central16 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Gimnasia La Plata9 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Banfield vs Barracas Central

  • 14 September 2026Banfield 1–1 Barracas CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 2 May 2026Barracas Central 1–2 BanfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 28 July 2025Banfield 1–3 Barracas CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 1 February 2025Barracas Central 1–0 BanfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 16 September 2024Barracas Central 0–1 BanfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 14 February 2024Banfield 0–0 Barracas CentralCopa de la Liga Profesional

Leading scorers: Banfield and Barracas Central

Banfield

  • M. Méndez6 goals3 assists
  • Tiziano Perrota6 goals1 assists

Barracas Central

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.48 goals for Banfield and 1.38 for Barracas Central; the game produced 1 and 1.

Goals

Scorers, in order: L. Gomez 45' (Banfield), I. Tapia 62' (Barracas Central).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Banfield the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Banfield against 1.38 for Barracas Central. Banfield's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.61 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.18 for Barracas Central.