2 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

West Brom vs Charlton Championship prediction & result

The Hawthorns, West Bromwich
Full time1 – 1

Final score: West Brom 1-1 Charlton.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% West Brom, 29% draw, 29% Charlton — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts West Brom at 42% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

West Brom5%Draw92%Charlton3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁K. Tundeout: R. Nzingoula
46'
⚽C. Styles
59'
60'
🔁M. Alliout: J. Rankin-Costello
60'
🔁A. Mwambaout: I. Mesik
60'
🔁K. Grantout: T. Ouma
69'
⚽T. Campbell
77'
T. Bindon
🔁J. Morganout: A. Heggebo
77'
80'
🔁M. Leaburnout: M. Mbick
🔁F. Myhreout: B. Stewart
89'
89'
🔁C. Coventryout: S. Carey
I. Price
90+3'

Match stats — West Brom vs Charlton

71%Possession29%
15Shots4
3On target1
8Corners3
0.57xG0.39

Goals against chances

West Brom1 from 0.57 xGabout what the chances were worth
Charlton1 from 0.39 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

West Brom
  • 1M. O'LearyG
  • 25N. GalvesD
  • 3N. PhillipsD
  • 6G. CampbellD
  • 4C. StylesD
  • 26K. TundeM
  • 8J. MolumbyM
  • 17O. DiakiteM
  • 21I. PriceM
  • 7F. MyhreF
  • 11J. Morgan
Substitutes
  • 13M. IngramG
  • 22C. TownsendD
  • 2C. MephamD
  • 15T. CollyerM
  • 29H. WhitwellM
  • 20R. NzingoulaM
  • 19A. HeggeboF
  • 23T. BanyF
  • 9B. StewartF
Charlton 4-2-3-1
  • 13A. OkonkwoG
  • 20D. McNamaraD
  • 5L. JonesD
  • 44T. BindonD
  • 17A. BellD
  • 32A. MwambaM
  • 6C. CoventryM
  • 19M. AlliM
  • 9K. GrantM
  • 7T. Campbell
  • 11M. LeaburnF
Substitutes
  • 21T. BrooksG
  • 26J. Rankin-CostelloM
  • 18I. MesikD
  • 8H. KnibbsM
  • 14S. CareyM
  • 16T. OumaM
  • 30R. ApterM
  • 35R. Nkeng
  • 33M. MbickF
Coach: Nathan Jones

Form going into West Brom vs Charlton

West Brom

  • L1-3away to Middlesbrough29 August 2026

Charlton

  • W1-0Preston29 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4West Brom7421107+314
6Charlton733167-112

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: West Brom vs Charlton

  • 2 September 2026West Brom 1–1 CharltonChampionship
  • 24 February 2026West Brom 1–1 CharltonChampionship
  • 4 November 2025Charlton 1–0 West BromChampionship
  • 11 January 2020Charlton 2–2 West BromChampionship
  • 5 January 2020Charlton 0–1 West BromFA Cup
  • 26 October 2019West Brom 2–2 CharltonChampionship

Leading scorers: West Brom and Charlton

West Brom

  • J. Morgan3 goals3 assists

Charlton

  • Tyreece Anthony Tupac Shakur Campbell3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.