Burnley vs Middlesbrough Championship prediction & result
Final score: Burnley 1-1 Middlesbrough.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Burnley, 28% draw, 24% Middlesbrough — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Burnley at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Burnley vs Middlesbrough
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. WeissG
- 22O. SonneD
- 15A. AhmedhodzicD
- 18H. EkdalD
- 14C. RobertsD
- 28H. MejbriM
- 8U. RaghouberM
- 7J. Bruun LarsenM
- 17A. HountondjiM
- 12D. SatpaevM
- 11Z. AmdouniF
- 37G. CoudertG
- 2K. WalkerD
- 20S. SamboD
- 3M. AlleyneD
- 21A. RamseyM
- 31M. Tresor NdayishimiyeF
- 27A. BrojaF
- 10M. EdwardsF
- 19L. RamazaniF
- 1R. VitekG
- 2C. BrittainD
- 12L. AylingD
- 5A. JonesD
- 30Neto BorgesD
- 10A. MorrisM
- 29A. MalandaM
- 6S. BerhalterM
- 8R. McGreeF
- 7W. LankshearF
- 22K. JosephF
- 31S. BrynnG
- 3S. ByramD
- 4A. PhillipsD
- 21R. PukstasM
- 44C. IbehM
- 19L. CastledineM
- 9T. ConwayF
- 13D. StrelecF
- 17M. ArfstenD
Form going into Burnley vs Middlesbrough
Burnley
All competitions we cover
- L1-4away to Norwich29 August 2026
- L1-3away to West Brom23 August 2026
- D2-2West Ham16 August 2026
Middlesbrough
All competitions we cover
- W3-1West Brom29 August 2026
- L1-2away to Blackburn22 August 2026
- W2-1Lincoln15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 10 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 30 | 19 | +11 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Burnley vs Middlesbrough
- 29 December 2024Middlesbrough 0–0 BurnleyChampionship
- 6 December 2024Burnley 1–1 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- 7 April 2023Middlesbrough 1–2 BurnleyChampionship
- 17 December 2022Burnley 3–1 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- 8 April 2017Middlesbrough 0–0 BurnleyPremier League
Leading scorers: Burnley and Middlesbrough
Burnley
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.
Middlesbrough
GoalsAssists
- W. Lankshear130
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Burnley and Middlesbrough drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Burnley at 48% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: A. Morris 23' for Middlesbrough, U. Raghouber 54' for Burnley. On expected goals it finished 0.64–1.22.