2 September 2026, 19:00 UTC

Burnley vs Middlesbrough Championship prediction & result

Turf Moor, Burnley
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Burnley 1-1 Middlesbrough.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Burnley, 28% draw, 24% Middlesbrough — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Burnley at 48% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Burnley5%Draw92%Middlesbrough3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

23'
⚽A. Morrisassist: S. Berhalter
Hannibal Mejbri
28'
39'
Will Lankshear
🔁H. Mejbriout: M. Alleyne
46'
🔁A. Hountondjiout: L. Ramazani
46'
⚽U. Raghouberassist: Z. Amdouni
54'
61'
🔁K. Josephout: L. Castledine
61'
🔁R. McGreeout: T. Conway
71'
Alfie Jones
🔁Z. Amdouniout: A. Ramsey
71'
74'
🔁A. Jonesout: A. Phillips
🔁J. Bruun Larsenout: A. Broja
77'
🔁D. Satpaevout: M. Tresor Ndayishimiye
81'
87'
🔁W. Lankshearout: D. Strelec
Ugo Raghouber
90+1'

Match stats — Burnley vs Middlesbrough

43%Possession57%
11Shots10
3On target2
5Corners1
0.64xG1.22

Goals against chances

Burnley1 from 0.64 xGabout what the chances were worth
Middlesbrough1 from 1.22 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Burnley 4-3-2-1
  • 1M. WeissG
  • 22O. SonneD
  • 15A. AhmedhodzicD
  • 18H. EkdalD
  • 14C. RobertsD
  • 28H. MejbriM
  • 8U. RaghouberM
  • 7J. Bruun LarsenM
  • 17A. HountondjiM
  • 12D. SatpaevM
  • 11Z. AmdouniF
Substitutes
  • 37G. CoudertG
  • 2K. WalkerD
  • 20S. SamboD
  • 3M. AlleyneD
  • 21A. RamseyM
  • 31M. Tresor NdayishimiyeF
  • 27A. BrojaF
  • 10M. EdwardsF
  • 19L. RamazaniF
Coach: Nicky Hayen
Middlesbrough 4-3-3
  • 1R. VitekG
  • 2C. BrittainD
  • 12L. AylingD
  • 5A. JonesD
  • 30Neto BorgesD
  • 10A. MorrisM
  • 29A. MalandaM
  • 6S. BerhalterM
  • 8R. McGreeF
  • 7W. LankshearF
  • 22K. JosephF
Substitutes
  • 31S. BrynnG
  • 3S. ByramD
  • 4A. PhillipsD
  • 21R. PukstasM
  • 44C. IbehM
  • 19L. CastledineM
  • 9T. ConwayF
  • 13D. StrelecF
  • 17M. ArfstenD
Coach: Kim Hellberg

Form going into Burnley vs Middlesbrough

Burnley

  • L1-4away to Norwich29 August 2026

Middlesbrough

  • W3-1West Brom29 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
24Burnley7034816-83
3Middlesbrough74211410+414

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Burnley vs Middlesbrough

  • 2 September 2026Burnley 1–1 MiddlesbroughChampionship
  • 29 December 2024Middlesbrough 0–0 BurnleyChampionship
  • 6 December 2024Burnley 1–1 MiddlesbroughChampionship
  • 7 April 2023Middlesbrough 1–2 BurnleyChampionship
  • 17 December 2022Burnley 3–1 MiddlesbroughChampionship
  • 8 April 2017Middlesbrough 0–0 BurnleyPremier League

Leading scorers: Burnley and Middlesbrough

Burnley

No player in Championship's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.

Middlesbrough

  • W. Lankshear6 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.