2 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

QPR vs Cardiff Championship prediction & result

Loftus Road, London
Full time2 – 1

Final score: QPR 2-1 Cardiff.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% QPR, 28% draw, 30% Cardiff — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts QPR at 42% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

QPR96%Draw4%Cardiff0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽R. Burrell
36'
46'
🔁C. Ashfordout: C. Willock
46'
🔁C. Scanlonout: K. Bielik
47'
Ollie Tanner
⚽R. Burrellassist: R. Edwards
53'
🔁N. Madsenout: J. Varane
71'
🔁G. Kamaraout: D. Cirkin
72'
🔁A. S. Mbengueout: K. Adamson
72'
🔁T. Lampteyout: J. Clarke-Salter
72'
75'
⚽P. Ngassist: O. Tanner
77'
Perry Ng
80'
🔁J. Moylanout: J. Colwill
🔁A. Lloydout: I. Chair
81'
89'
🔁O. Tannerout: I. Davies
89'
🔁A. Robertsonout: C. Robinson

Match stats — QPR vs Cardiff

37%Possession63%
20Shots9
4On target3
3Corners4
2.09xG0.6

Goals against chances

QPR2 from 2.09 xGabout what the chances were worth
Cardiff1 from 0.60 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

QPR 4-4-2
  • 1P. CharlesG
  • 27A. S. MbengueD
  • 3J. DunneD
  • 5R. EdwardsD
  • 48T. LampteyD
  • 20H. ValeM
  • 18G. KamaraM
  • 24N. MadsenM
  • 14K. SaitoM
  • 15A. LloydF
  • 16R. BurrellF
Substitutes
  • 13C. WardG
  • 19D. CirkinD
  • 2K. AdamsonD
  • 6J. Clarke-SalterD
  • 10I. ChairM
  • 40J. VaraneM
  • 25J. ObikwuF
  • 11P. SmythF
  • 22R. KoneF
Coach: Julien Stephan
Cardiff 4-2-3-1
  • 1N. TrottG
  • 38P. NgD
  • 4G. OshoD
  • 3J. BaganD
  • 23C. ScanlonD
  • 18A. RobertsonM
  • 45C. AshfordM
  • 11O. TannerM
  • 10R. ColwillM
  • 8J. MoylanM
  • 9Y. SalechF
Substitutes
  • 30H. TyrerG
  • 44R. KpakioD
  • 14D. TurnbullM
  • 16C. WillockM
  • 5K. BielikD
  • 27J. ColwillM
  • 33R. TankiewiczM
  • 39I. DaviesF
  • 47C. RobinsonF
Coach: Brian Barry-Murphy

Form going into QPR vs Cardiff

QPR

  • W2-1away to Blackburn29 August 2026

Cardiff

  • D2-2Sheffield Utd29 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5QPR733185+312
21Cardiff7043711-44

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: QPR vs Cardiff

  • 2 September 2026QPR 2–1 CardiffChampionship
  • 23 July 2025QPR 2–2 CardiffFriendlies Clubs
  • 5 April 2025QPR 0–0 CardiffChampionship
  • 27 November 2024Cardiff 0–2 QPRChampionship
  • 1 January 2024QPR 1–2 CardiffChampionship
  • 12 August 2023Cardiff 1–2 QPRChampionship
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.