2 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Millwall vs Wrexham Championship prediction & result

The Den, London
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Millwall 0-3 Wrexham.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Millwall, 28% draw, 30% Wrexham — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Millwall at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Casper De Norre
18'
28'
⚽Z. Sturge (OG)
36'
Ben Whiteman
🔁C. De Norreout: C. Neghli
43'
52'
⚽K. Mooreassist: J. Windass
Lyndon Dykes
56'
🔁J. Coburnout: Z. Lovelace
63'
🔁E. Baggottout: D. Mazou-Sacko
64'
67'
🔁I. Kaboreout: D. Imray
67'
🔁J. Windassout: O. Rathbone
69'
⚽J. Ekomieassist: D. Imray
73'
🔁K. Mooreout: S. Smith
🔁J. Metcalfeout: J. Osei-Tutu
74'
🔁D. Kellyout: A. Massey
74'
76'
🔁J. Ekomieout: R. Longman

Match stats — Millwall vs Wrexham

39%Possession61%
4Shots9
0On target3
1Corners2
0.23xG0.88

Goals against chances

Millwall0 from 0.23 xGabout what the chances were worth
Wrexham3 from 0.88 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Millwall 3-1-4-2
  • 15M. CrocombeG
  • 6C. TaylorD
  • 5J. CooperD
  • 12E. BaggottD
  • 24C. De NorreM
  • 17M. SykesM
  • 16D. KellyM
  • 14J. Metcalfe
  • 3Z. SturgeM
  • 19J. CoburnF
  • 13L. DykesF
Substitutes
  • 43J. ColemanG
  • 23D. BatthD
  • 2J. Osei-TutuD
  • 55T. ParkesD
  • 49D. Mazou-SackoM
  • 44A. MasseyM
  • 51S. T. VieiraM
  • 10C. NeghliM
  • 29Z. LovelaceF
Coach: Alex Neil
Wrexham 3-4-2-1
  • 22A. PattersonG
  • 4M. CleworthD
  • 5D. HyamD
  • 2C. DoyleD
  • 12I. KaboreM
  • 37M. JamesM
  • 8B. WhitemanM
  • 3J. EkomieM
  • 10J. WindassF
  • 27L. O'BrienF
  • 19K. MooreF
Substitutes
  • 21D. WardG
  • 26Z. VynerD
  • 6J. WorrallD
  • 30D. ImrayD
  • 47R. LongmanM
  • 20O. RathboneM
  • 17C. O'HareM
  • 11B. CadamarteriF
  • 28S. SmithF
Coach: Phil Parkinson

Form going into Millwall vs Wrexham

Millwall

All competitions we cover

  • L1-5away to Southampton29 August 2026
  • W3-0Norwich22 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Bristol City15 August 2026

Wrexham

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2Birmingham28 August 2026
  • D1-1Watford22 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Cardiff17 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Millwall155372327-418
15Wrexham154651820-218

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Millwall vs Wrexham

  • 7 February 2026Wrexham 0–2 MillwallChampionship
  • 30 August 2025Millwall 0–2 WrexhamChampionship

Leading scorers: Millwall and Wrexham

Millwall

No player in Championship's leading scorers — 23 league goals as a side.

Wrexham

GoalsAssists

  • K. Moore52

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Wrexham won 3–0 at Millwall. The model had leaned towards a win for Millwall at 42% and given a win for Wrexham 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Z. Sturge (own goal) 28' for Wrexham, K. Moore 52' for Wrexham, J. Ekomie 69' for Wrexham. On expected goals it finished 0.23–0.88.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.