2 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Millwall vs Wrexham Championship prediction & result

The Den, London
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Millwall 0-3 Wrexham.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Millwall, 28% draw, 30% Wrexham — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Millwall at 42% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Casper De Norre
18'
28'
⚽Z. Sturge (OG)
36'
Ben Whiteman
🔁C. De Norreout: C. Neghli
43'
52'
⚽K. Mooreassist: J. Windass
Lyndon Dykes
56'
🔁J. Coburnout: Z. Lovelace
63'
🔁E. Baggottout: D. Mazou-Sacko
64'
67'
🔁I. Kaboreout: D. Imray
67'
🔁J. Windassout: O. Rathbone
69'
⚽J. Ekomieassist: D. Imray
73'
🔁K. Mooreout: S. Smith
🔁J. Metcalfeout: J. Osei-Tutu
74'
🔁D. Kellyout: A. Massey
74'
76'
🔁J. Ekomieout: R. Longman

Match stats — Millwall vs Wrexham

39%Possession61%
4Shots9
0On target3
1Corners2
0.23xG0.88

Goals against chances

Millwall0 from 0.23 xGabout what the chances were worth
Wrexham3 from 0.88 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Millwall 3-1-4-2
  • 15M. CrocombeG
  • 6C. TaylorD
  • 5J. CooperD
  • 12E. BaggottD
  • 24C. De NorreM
  • 17M. SykesM
  • 16D. KellyM
  • 14J. Metcalfe
  • 3Z. SturgeM
  • 19J. CoburnF
  • 13L. DykesF
Substitutes
  • 43J. ColemanG
  • 23D. BatthD
  • 2J. Osei-TutuD
  • 55T. ParkesD
  • 49D. Mazou-SackoM
  • 44A. MasseyM
  • 51S. T. VieiraM
  • 10C. NeghliM
  • 29Z. LovelaceF
Coach: Alex Neil
Wrexham 3-4-2-1
  • 22A. PattersonG
  • 4M. CleworthD
  • 5D. HyamD
  • 2C. DoyleD
  • 12I. KaboreM
  • 37M. JamesM
  • 8B. WhitemanM
  • 3J. EkomieM
  • 10J. WindassF
  • 27L. O'BrienF
  • 19K. MooreF
Substitutes
  • 21D. WardG
  • 26Z. VynerD
  • 6J. WorrallD
  • 30D. ImrayD
  • 47R. LongmanM
  • 20O. RathboneM
  • 17C. O'HareM
  • 11B. CadamarteriF
  • 28S. SmithF
Coach: Phil Parkinson

Form going into Millwall vs Wrexham

Millwall

  • L1-5away to Southampton29 August 2026

Wrexham

  • L1-2Birmingham28 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Millwall73131313010
19Wrexham7142711-47

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Millwall vs Wrexham

  • 2 September 2026Millwall 0–3 WrexhamChampionship
  • 7 February 2026Wrexham 0–2 MillwallChampionship
  • 30 August 2025Millwall 0–2 WrexhamChampionship

Leading scorers: Millwall and Wrexham

Millwall

  • L. Dykes4 goals
  • T. Arconte3 goals

Wrexham

No player in Championship's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.