12 September 2026, 18:15 UTC

Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice Ekstraklasa prediction & result

KGHM Zaglebie Arena, Lubin
Full time2 1

Final score: Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 GKS Katowice.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Zaglebie Lubin, 28% draw, 26% GKS Katowice — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Zaglebie Lubin at 46% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Zaglebie Lubin99%Draw1%GKS Katowice0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Kamil Nowogonskiassist: Josip Ćorluka
42'
Damian Dąbrowski
44'
45'
🔁Bartosz Wolskiout: Kacper Lukasiak
🔁Filip Szymczakout: Michalis Kosidis
58'
64'
🔁Eman Markovićout: Marcel Wedrychowski
🔁Josip Ćorlukaout: Igor Orlikowski
68'
🔁Kamil Nowogonskiout: Jakub·Sypek
68'
73'
🔁Erik Jirkaout: Mateusz Wdowiak
Michalis Kosidisassist: Igor Orlikowski
78'
83'
🔁Mateusz·Kowalczykout: Sebastian Milewski
83'
🔁Bartosz Nowakout: Szymon bartlewicz
🔁Filip Kocabaout: Jakub Kolan
87'
🔁David Čolinaout: Damian Michalski
87'
90+2'
Marcin Wasielewski
Roman Yakuba
90+4'
90+4'
Arkadiusz Jedrych (pen)
Jakub Kolan
90+7'

Match stats — Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice

41%Possession59%
21Shots12
5On target3
6Corners4

Line-ups

Zaglebie Lubin 3-4-3
  • 33Z. AlomerovićG
  • 5A. ŁawniczakD
  • 25M. NalepaD
  • 3R. YakubaD
  • 16J. ĆorlukaM
  • 39F. KocabaM
  • 8D. DąbrowskiM
  • 6D. ČolinaM
  • 44M. RegułaF
  • 18F. SzymczakF
  • 71K. NowogońskiF
Substitutes
  • 20M. DziewiatowskiM
  • 30D. HładunG
  • 37S. KerkM
  • 1J. BurićG
  • 26J. KolanM
  • 9M. KosidisF
  • 19S. ŁyczkoM
  • 4D. MichalskiD
  • 88M. MlinarićF
Coach: L. Ojrzynski
GKS Katowice 3-4-3
  • 87G. KobylakG
  • 30A. CzerwińskiD
  • 4A. JędrychD
  • 55Pau RestaD
  • 97E. JirkaM
  • 68B. WolskiM
  • 77M. KowalczykM
  • 23M. WasielewskiM
  • 15E. MarkovićF
  • 17I. ShkurinF
  • 27B. NowakF
Substitutes
  • 10M. WędrychowskiM
  • 7M. WdowiakM
  • 22S. MilewskiM
  • 19K. ŁukasiakM
  • 21Jakub KokosinskiF
  • 1M. KikolskiG
  • 31S. BartlewiczM
  • 26D. RasakM
Coach: R. Górak

Form going into Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice

Zaglebie Lubin

  • D1-1away to Wieczysta Kraków7 September 2026
  • D0-0Pogon Szczecin29 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Radomiak Radom23 August 2026

GKS Katowice

  • L0-3away to Piast Gliwice4 September 2026
  • W3-2away to Gornik Zabrze30 August 2026
  • W5-0Wisla Plock23 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Motor Lublin16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Zaglebie Lubin8431118+315
10GKS Katowice73041311+29

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice

  • 12 September 2026Zaglebie Lubin 2–1 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
  • 30 January 2026Zaglebie Lubin 0–2 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
  • 28 July 2025GKS Katowice 2–2 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
  • 9 March 2025GKS Katowice 1–0 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
  • 31 August 2024Zaglebie Lubin 1–0 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
  • 13 July 2024Zaglebie Lubin 1–1 GKS KatowiceFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Zaglebie Lubin and GKS Katowice

Zaglebie Lubin

No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.

GKS Katowice

  • I. Shkurin5 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.