Rustavi vs Samgurali Erovnuli Liga prediction & result
Final score: Rustavi 2-0 Samgurali.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Rustavi, 27% draw, 23% Samgurali — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Rustavi at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rustavi vs Samgurali
Line-ups
- 21P. BeruashviliG
- 2S. AndghuladzeD
- 4DavidD
- 24I. IakobidzeD
- 3V. PatsatsiaD
- 19N. ChikovaniD
- 8K. KakashviliM
- 7K. S. AbdulM
- 40D. UbilavaD
- 11S. KessiF
- 20L. ParkadzeM
- 22Y. NakanoM
- 10P. OseiF
- 5Kevin William CeijasF
- 30G. ChkheidzeF
- 13A. GujabidzeM
- 18N. JaparidzeF
- 9JeanF
- 27M. KapanadzeD
- 1S. KardavaG
- 21A. SiukaevG
- 13L. GegetchkoriD
- 25M. ShatirishviliD
- 39RyanD
- 27L. ShergelashviliD
- 20Vinicius ViannaM
- 9T. GaprindashviliF
- 15Gean CarlosF
- 29nika manjgaladzeD
- 11D. KrasovskiF
- 28Cláudio CebolinhaF
- 22G. GogiaD
- 14T. GoletianiM
- 26Z. IashviliM
- 33Isac MartinsM
- 12A. KasradzeG
- 18G. MeparishviliD
- 19I. SiradzeF
- 17N. TsetskhladzeF
- 8I. BidzinashviliM
Form going into Rustavi vs Samgurali
Rustavi
Erovnuli Liga
- D2-2away to Gagra1 November 2026
- L0-2Dinamo Tbilisi23 October 2026
- W1-0away to Torpedo Kutaisi18 October 2026
- W3-1Dila10 October 2026
Samgurali
Erovnuli Liga
- D0-0Spaeri31 October 2026
- L0-3away to Dinamo Batumi24 October 2026
- W2-0Meshakhte17 October 2026
- W3-0Gagra11 October 2026
What these results say
- Rustavi scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Rustavi conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Samgurali kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Rustavi | 32 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 40 | 28 | +12 | 56 |
| 7 | Samgurali | 32 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 43 | 57 | -14 | 39 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Rustavi vs Samgurali
- 30 August 2026Samgurali 1–1 RustaviErovnuli Liga
- 21 May 2026Rustavi 1–0 SamguraliErovnuli Liga
- 3 April 2026Samgurali 2–1 RustaviErovnuli Liga
- 22 September 2020Samgurali 2–1 RustaviErovnuli Liga 2
The result against the call
Rustavi beat Samgurali 2–0. The model had made a win for Rustavi its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: solomon kessi 65' for Rustavi, kevin ceijas 86' for Rustavi.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rustavi a 3.2% chance to finish top of the regular season: 4.9% after a win, 1.6% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.9%, 1.7 points higher than before the match.
For Samgurali the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 2.8% going in: under 1% after a win, 2.0% after a draw, 3.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 3.9%, 1.1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Erovnuli Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.