Challenge League predictions

Friday 20 November — 5 matches

• 18:30 UTC Neuchatel Xamax FC vs Étoile Carouge — model 44% / 29% / 27%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.27 · 3.45 · 3.70. Evenly matched
• 18:30 UTC Rapperswil vs FC Aarau — model 39% / 26% / 35%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.56 · 3.85 · 2.86. Evenly matched
• 18:30 UTC Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs SC Kriens — model 57% / 25% / 18%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.75 · 4.00 · 5.56. Edge: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
• 18:30 UTC Stade Nyonnais vs FC WIL 1900 — model 31% / 28% / 41%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.23 · 3.57 · 2.44. Edge: FC WIL 1900
• 19:15 UTC Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur — model 41% / 28% / 31%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.44 · 3.57 · 3.23. Evenly matched

Friday 27 November — 3 matches

• 18:30 UTC SC Kriens vs FC Aarau — model 47% / 26% / 27%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.13 · 3.85 · 3.70. Evenly matched
• 19:15 UTC FC Winterthur vs Rapperswil — model 64% / 21% / 15%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.56 · 4.76 · 6.67. One-sided: FC Winterthur
• 19:15 UTC Étoile Carouge vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy — model 26% / 30% / 44%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.85 · 3.33 · 2.27. One-sided: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

Saturday 28 November — 2 matches

• 17:00 UTC Neuchatel Xamax FC vs Stade Nyonnais — model 59% / 24% / 17%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.69 · 4.17 · 5.88. Edge: Neuchatel Xamax FC
• 17:00 UTC FC WIL 1900 vs Yverdon Sport — model 31% / 28% / 41%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.23 · 3.57 · 2.44. Edge: Yverdon Sport

Last round: the model's hits and misses

6–8 November: the model called the result of 2 of 5 matches.

• SC Kriens 1–0 Rapperswil — the model said 54% / 23% / 23%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
• Stade Nyonnais 1–5 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy — the model said 19% / 28% / 53%, most likely 0-1: result correct.
• FC Aarau 0–3 FC WIL 1900 — the model said 56% / 24% / 20%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
• FC Winterthur 2–2 Étoile Carouge — the model said 59% / 25% / 16%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
• Yverdon Sport 0–0 Neuchatel Xamax FC — the model said 57% / 24% / 19%, most likely 2-0: result missed.

Challenge League so far

Top of the table

• 1. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy — 31 pts from 13 (9W 4D 0L, goals 28–6)
• 2. FC Winterthur — 25 pts from 13 (7W 4D 2L, goals 28–13)
• 3. Yverdon Sport — 23 pts from 13 (6W 5D 2L, goals 23–14)
• 4. SC Kriens — 19 pts from 13 (5W 4D 4L, goals 22–19)
• 5. Neuchatel Xamax FC — 17 pts from 13 (5W 2D 6L, goals 16–20)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 25 matches left: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 93.1%, FC Winterthur 5.3%, Yverdon Sport 1.6%.