7 November 2026, 17:00 UTC

FC Winterthur vs Étoile Carouge Challenge League prediction & result

Winterthur
Referee: A. Kanagasingam
Full time2 – 2

Final score: FC Winterthur 2-2 Étoile Carouge.

Before kick-off the model made it 59% FC Winterthur, 25% draw, 16% Étoile Carouge — fair odds of 1.69, 4.00 and 6.25.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Winterthur at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Winterthur98%Draw2%Étoile Carouge0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽A. Marchesano (pen)
20'
⚽E. Kehrer
40'
A. Spagnoli
45'
45+2'
⚽Itaitinga (pen)
60'
🔁Itaitingaout: O. Correia
60'
🔁M. Holcbecherout: B. Cespedes
60'
🔁T. Escorzaout: B. Caslei
🔁L. Zuffiout: Y. Odin
64'
🔁B. Beyerout: T. Golliard
64'
S. Camara
71'
73'
🔁L. Essienaout: Ricardo Alves
🔁A. Marchesanoout: A. Jankewitz
73'
🔁E. Kehrerout: E. Maluvunu
73'
79'
🔁T. Nunezout: O. Renovales
🔁A. Turkesout: R. Buess
84'
87'
O. Correia
E. Maluvunu
90+3'
90+3'
⚽O. Renovales

Form going into FC Winterthur vs Étoile Carouge

FC Winterthur

Challenge League

  • W3-0away to FC WIL 19001 November 2026
  • W4-0Stade Nyonnais23 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Neuchatel Xamax FC9 October 2026
  • W2-1FC Aarau18 September 2026

Étoile Carouge

Challenge League

  • D2-2SC Kriens30 October 2026
  • W2-1away to FC Aarau24 October 2026
  • L0-2Yverdon Sport9 October 2026
  • L1-4away to SC Kriens18 September 2026

What these results say

  • Every one of these 4 matches for FC Winterthur had three goals or more.
  • FC Winterthur won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • FC Winterthur scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Étoile Carouge conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Étoile Carouge failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Étoile Carouge scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Challenge League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2FC Winterthur137422813+1525
7Étoile Carouge133551419-514

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Winterthur vs Étoile Carouge

  • 11 September 2026Étoile Carouge 0–1 FC WinterthurChallenge League
  • 18 September 2021Étoile Carouge 3–1 FC WinterthurSchweizer Cup

The result against the call

FC Winterthur and Étoile Carouge drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Winterthur at 59% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: A. Marchesano (penalty) 20' for FC Winterthur, E. Kehrer 40' for FC Winterthur, Itaitinga (penalty) 45+2' for Étoile Carouge, O. Renovales 90+3' for Étoile Carouge.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Winterthur a 11.3% chance to win the league: 14.3% after a win, 5.6% after a draw, 4.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 5.6%, 5.7 points lower than before the match.

For Étoile Carouge the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 3.6% going in: 9.6% after a win, 3.8% after a draw, 2.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 3.8%.

Read from our Challenge League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.