6 November 2026, 19:15 UTC

FC Aarau vs FC WIL 1900 Challenge League prediction & result

Aarau
Referee: N. Gianforte
Full time0 – 3

Final score: FC Aarau 0-3 FC WIL 1900.

Before kick-off the model made it 56% FC Aarau, 24% draw, 20% FC WIL 1900 — fair odds of 1.79, 4.17 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Aarau at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Aarau0%Draw1%FC WIL 190099%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
I. Okafor
27'
⚽L. Schreiberassist: N. Rupp
29'
D. Kaiba
M. Thaler
34'
59'
⚽I. Okaforassist: D. Jacovic
🔁R. Guzzoout: L. Obexer
60'
🔁A. Beka Bekaout: A. Bizzarri
60'
68'
A. Rexhaj
K. Ndau
69'
🔁H. Koideout: D. Coric
70'
🔁K. Ndauout: M. Guindo
70'
71'
🔁A. Rexhajout: P. Fischer
71'
🔁Y. Allouout: M. Diarra
75'
🔁D. Jacovicout: T. Staubli
🔁M. Dickenmannout: R. Baturina
81'
84'
⚽L. Schreiberassist: N. Rupp
88'
🔁L. Breedijkout: B. Keita
88'
🔁N. Ruppout: O. Bunjaku

Line-ups

FC Aarau
Coach: Brunello Iacopetta
FC WIL 1900
Coach: Marco Hammerli

Form going into FC Aarau vs FC WIL 1900

FC Aarau

Challenge League

  • W3-1away to Neuchatel Xamax FC30 October 2026
  • L1-2Étoile Carouge24 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Stade Nyonnais9 October 2026
  • L1-2away to FC Winterthur18 September 2026

FC WIL 1900

Challenge League

  • L0-3FC Winterthur1 November 2026
  • D2-2Rapperswil23 October 2026
  • D1-1away to SC Kriens9 October 2026
  • W5-0Stade Nyonnais18 September 2026

What these results say

  • FC Aarau scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • FC Aarau conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for FC Aarau had three goals or more.
  • FC WIL 1900 failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • FC WIL 1900 scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • FC WIL 1900 conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Challenge League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6FC Aarau134361924-515
8FC WIL 1900133552127-614

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Aarau vs FC WIL 1900

  • 31 August 2026FC WIL 1900 2–2 FC AarauChallenge League
  • 25 April 2026FC WIL 1900 2–2 FC AarauChallenge League
  • 7 February 2026FC Aarau 2–2 FC WIL 1900Challenge League
  • 24 October 2025FC Aarau 2–0 FC WIL 1900Challenge League
  • 1 August 2025FC WIL 1900 1–3 FC AarauChallenge League
  • 9 May 2025FC Aarau 2–4 FC WIL 1900Challenge League

The result against the call

FC WIL 1900 won 3–0 at FC Aarau. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Aarau at 56% and given a win for FC WIL 1900 20%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: L. Schreiber 27' for FC WIL 1900, I. Okafor 59' for FC WIL 1900, L. Schreiber 84' for FC WIL 1900.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Aarau a 22.1% chance to finish in the top four: 27.3% after a win, 15.8% after a draw, 9.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.8%, 12.3 points lower than before the match.

For FC WIL 1900 the question was the chance to finish in the bottom one, 13.9% going in: 4.1% after a win, 11.0% after a draw, 17.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.1%, 9.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Challenge League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FC Aarau v FC WIL 1900 has moved

First published on 23 Oct at 54% / 24% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 56% / 24% / 20%: the biggest move is FC Aarau's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. FC Aarau win56%▲ +2
  2. Draw24%=
  3. FC WIL 1900 win20%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.