6 November 2026, 18:30 UTC

Stade Nyonnais vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy Challenge League prediction & result

Colovray Sports Centre, Nyon
Referee: L. Berchier
Full time1 – 5

Final score: Stade Nyonnais 1-5 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.

Before kick-off the model made it 19% Stade Nyonnais, 28% draw, 53% Stade Lausanne-Ouchy — fair odds of 5.26, 3.57 and 1.89.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Stade Nyonnais0%Draw1%Stade Lausanne-Ouchy99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

17'
J. A. Tur
21'
⚽R. Dantas Fernandes
29'
⚽M. Sartoretti (pen)
L. Ribeiro
35'
🔁R. Correiaout: R. Philippin
46'
47'
⚽T. Bouchlarhemassist: D. Moussadek
⚽F. Hysenajassist: S. Fankhauser
56'
🔁F. Hysenajout: M. Ishuayed
59'
🔁M. Regilloout: F. Lentini
59'
64'
🔁V. Trittenout: R. Freitas
64'
🔁M. Sartorettiout: J. Atangana
64'
🔁J. A. Turout: N. Lusuena
🔁L. Ribeiroout: P. Moulin
75'
78'
🔁I. Kalogaout: C. Sow
🔁K. Thermoncyout: F. Ahuissou
78'
R. Ouchard
80'
82'
⚽J. Atangana
85'
🔁R. Dantas Fernandesout: J. Nkama
F. Ahuissou
87'
89'
J. Nkama
90+1'
⚽T. Bouchlarhem (pen)
M. Ishuayed
90+1'

Line-ups

Stade Nyonnais
Coach: Aurelien Mioch
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Coach: Dalibor Stevanovic

Form going into Stade Nyonnais vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

Stade Nyonnais

Challenge League

  • W4-1away to Rapperswil30 October 2026
  • L0-4away to FC Winterthur23 October 2026
  • W2-1FC Aarau9 October 2026
  • L0-5away to FC WIL 190018 September 2026

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

Challenge League

  • W3-2Yverdon Sport30 October 2026
  • D0-0Neuchatel Xamax FC23 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Rapperswil9 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Yverdon Sport20 September 2026

What these results say

  • Stade Nyonnais conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Stade Nyonnais had three goals or more.
  • Stade Lausanne-Ouchy went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Stade Lausanne-Ouchy kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Challenge League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Stade Nyonnais132291334-218
1Stade Lausanne-Ouchy13940286+2231

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Stade Nyonnais vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

  • 24 July 2026Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2–0 Stade NyonnaisChallenge League
  • 11 May 2026Stade Nyonnais 1–3 Stade Lausanne-OuchyChallenge League
  • 14 March 2026Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1–1 Stade NyonnaisChallenge League
  • 1 November 2025Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3–3 Stade NyonnaisChallenge League
  • 12 September 2025Stade Nyonnais 1–2 Stade Lausanne-OuchyChallenge League
  • 26 April 2025Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0–1 Stade NyonnaisChallenge League

The result against the call

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy won 5–1 at Stade Nyonnais. The model had made a win for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy its most likely outcome, at 53%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: R. Dantas Fernandes 21' for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, M. Sartoretti (penalty) 29' for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, T. Bouchlarhem 47' for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, F. Hysenaj 56' for Stade Nyonnais, J. Atangana 82' for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, T. Bouchlarhem (penalty) 90+1' for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy. Sent off: R. Ouchard (Stade Nyonnais) 80'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Stade Nyonnais a 71.1% chance to finish in the bottom one: 48.7% after a win, 69.1% after a draw, 77.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 77.5%, 6.4 points higher than before the match.

For Stade Lausanne-Ouchy the question was the chance to win the league, 77.8% going in: 84.6% after a win, 69.9% after a draw, 63.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 84.6%, 6.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Challenge League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Stade Nyonnais v Stade Lausanne-Ouchy has moved

First published on 23 Oct at 17% / 27% / 56% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 19% / 28% / 53%: the biggest move is Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Stade Nyonnais win19%▲ +2
  2. Draw28%▲ +1
  3. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win53%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.