27 October 2026, 22:00 UTC

Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Diego Armando Maradona, Buenos Aires
Referee: Dario Herrera
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Argentinos Juniors 1-0 Independiente Rivadavia.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Argentinos Juniors, 27% draw, 22% Independiente Rivadavia — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

Argentinos Juniors at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Argentinos Juniors97%Draw3%Independiente Rivadavia0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Nicolas Oroz
4'
🔁Franco Vázquezout: Erik Godoy
29'
37'
Jose Ignacio Florentin
Gastón Verón
42'
Facundo Carrizo
49'
67'
🔁Gonzalo Riosout: Leonel Bucca
⚽Sebastián Prietoassist: Gastón Verón
67'
70'
🔁Matías Realiout: Luis Sequeira
🔁Matías Giménezout: Tomas Molina
74'
75'
Matías Fernández
78'
🔁Tomas Bottariout: Rodrigo Atencio
78'
🔁Juan Elordiout: Fabrizio Sartori Prieto
🔁Gastón Verónout: Kevin Coronel
82'
🔁Facundo Carrizoout: Mateo Mendoza
82'
Kevin Coronel
83'
Diego Rodrigo Porcel
86'
89'
Leonel Bucca
Mateo Mendoza
89'

Match stats — Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia

54%Possession46%
18Shots13
6On target3
9Corners3
1.32xG0.65

Goals against chances

Argentinos Juniors1 from 1.32 xGabout what the chances were worth
Independiente Rivadavia0 from 0.65 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Argentinos Juniors 4-3-3
  • 25B. CortésG
  • 17F. ParedesD
  • 16F. ÁlvarezD
  • 6F. VázquezD
  • 20S. PrietoD
  • 5Facundo CarrizoM
  • 15K. GutiérrezM
  • 11N. OrozM
  • 7D. PorcelF
  • 9G. VerónF
  • 19M. GiménezF
Substitutes
  • 28J. GhoM
  • 10G. FlorentínM
  • 4É. GodoyD
  • 32G. InfantinoM
  • 48F. JainikoskiF
  • 8H. LópezM
  • 23M. MendozaD
  • 27T. MolinaF
  • 12G. SiriG
Coach: N. Diez
Independiente Rivadavia 4-2-3-1
  • 30Nicolás BolcatoG
  • 28A. VigoD
  • 2L. CostaD
  • 13A. OsellaD
  • 3J. ElordiD
  • 5T. BottariM
  • 25J. FlorentínM
  • 80M. RealiM
  • 11G. RíosM
  • 10M. FernándezM
  • 9A. ArceF
Substitutes
  • 19R. AtencioF
  • 8L. BuccaM
  • 27D. CregoM
  • 21Emmanuel GómezG
  • 34S. MoreyraM
  • 7V. RamisF
  • 20A. RiepM
  • 55M. SalvoD
  • 43F. SartoriF
Coach: A. Berti

Form going into Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia

Argentinos Juniors

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • W1-0away to Banfield17 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Platense11 October 2026

Independiente Rivadavia

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • D2-2Tigre17 October 2026
  • L0-5away to Rosario Central11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Argentinos Juniors169432014+631
7Independiente Rivadavia166552124-323

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia

Argentinos Juniors and Independiente Rivadavia have met 7 times in the records we hold, Independiente Rivadavia has won 3 of them to Argentinos Juniors's 2, with 2 drawn.

The record

Argentinos Juniors won the last one 1–0 on 27 Oct 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
Argentinos Juniors223810
Independiente Rivadavia322108

Between them these 7 meetings produced 18 goals, an average of 2.57 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 27 Oct 2026
    Liga Profesional Argentina    Argentinos Juniors 1–0 Independiente Rivadavia
  • 11 Apr 2026
    Liga Profesional Argentina    Independiente Rivadavia 3–1 Argentinos Juniors
  • 6 Nov 2025
    Copa Argentina    Independiente Rivadavia 2–2 Argentinos Juniors
  • 30 Aug 2025
    Liga Profesional Argentina    Independiente Rivadavia 2–1 Argentinos Juniors
  • 24 Feb 2025
    Liga Profesional Argentina    Argentinos Juniors 0–0 Independiente Rivadavia
  • 3 Dec 2024
    Liga Profesional Argentina    Independiente Rivadavia 2–1 Argentinos Juniors
  • 20 Feb 2024
    Copa de la Liga Profesional    Argentinos Juniors 2–1 Independiente Rivadavia

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Independiente Rivadavia's attack rates 14% above Argentinos Juniors', and Argentinos Juniors concede 31% fewer than Independiente Rivadavia. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
Argentinos Juniors0.831.01
Independiente Rivadavia0.951.47

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Argentinos Juniors and Independiente Rivadavia

Argentinos Juniors

No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.

Independiente Rivadavia

GoalsAssists

  • J. Florentín91
  • A. Arce91
  • F. Sartori80

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Argentinos Juniors beat Independiente Rivadavia 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Argentinos Juniors at 51%. The goal: Sebastián Prieto 67' for Argentinos Juniors. On expected goals it finished 1.32–0.65.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Argentinos Juniors these chances to finish top of the Clausura Group A: 31.3% after a win, 11.9% after a draw, 3.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 31.3%.

For Independiente Rivadavia the question was the chance to finish in the top eight: 92.2% after a win, 69.9% after a draw, 52.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 52.2%.

Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Argentinos Juniors v Independiente Rivadavia has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 46% / 29% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 51% / 27% / 22%: the biggest move is Argentinos Juniors's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Argentinos Juniors win51%▲ +5
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Independiente Rivadavia win22%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.