26 October 2026, 20:30 UTC

Tecnico Universitario vs Mushuc Runa SC Liga Pro prediction & result

Estadio Bellavista, Ambato
Referee: Anthony Diaz
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Tecnico Universitario 3-0 Mushuc Runa SC.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Tecnico Universitario, 28% draw, 37% Mushuc Runa SC — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Mushuc Runa SC at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Tecnico Universitario99%Draw1%Mushuc Runa SC0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Bagner Delgadoassist: Luis Estupiñan
15'
F. Usúcar
31'
⚽Luis Estupiñanassist: Bagner Delgado
42'
45'
🔁Arnaldo Zambranoout: Freddy Mina
50'
Bryan Corozo
⚽Diego Armas (pen)
53'
62'
Freddy Mina
🔁Bagner Delgadoout: Carlos Cuero
65'
67'
🔁Nazareno Bazánout: Renso Tufino
67'
🔁Kevin Peraltaout: Jefferson Caicedo
73'
🔁Bryan Corozoout: Jackson Alexander González Simisterra
73'
🔁Nicolás Davilaout: Lucas Maximiliano·Lemos Mayuncaldi
🔁Yorlin Edwin Arce Minaout: Stiwar Mena Serna
77'
🔁Luis Estupiñanout: Wagner Eriberto Caicedo Peralta
77'
80'
Cristopher Angulo
🔁Johan Bocanegraout: Heuyín Anel Guardia González
88'
🔁Diego Armasout: Adrian Cela
89'

Match stats — Tecnico Universitario vs Mushuc Runa SC

45%Possession55%
13Shots15
5On target4
2Corners5
2.46xG0.71

Goals against chances

Tecnico Universitario3 from 2.46 xGmore than the chances were worth
Mushuc Runa SC0 from 0.71 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Tecnico Universitario 4-4-2
  • 12Ayrton MoralesG
  • 23E. MesaD
  • 53Rafael Francisco Chila MaciasD
  • 13J. AnayaD
  • 85Y. ArceD
  • 10J. BocanegraM
  • 70C. CastañoM
  • 33J. MajaoM
  • 25B. DelgadoM
  • 7L. EstupiñánF
  • 8D. ArmasF
Substitutes
  • 19Anthony CastiloF
  • 30Luis Arce Caicedo KenerD
  • 90W. CaicedoF
  • 67M. CarrascoM
  • 29A. CelaM
  • 4Luis Mario Cordova MinaD
  • 79C. CueroD
  • 9H. GuardiaF
  • 5S. MenaD
Coach: Ismael Blanco
Mushuc Runa SC 4-4-2
  • 25R. FormentoG
  • 26K. PeraltaD
  • 4Ronny Alfonso Biojo PreciadoD
  • 2J. FlorD
  • 33M. HernándezD
  • 19B. CorozoM
  • 5Esteban Nicolás Dávila AlarcónM
  • 8A. ZambranoM
  • 11N. BazánM
  • 99Cristopher Adonis Angulo CaicedoF
  • 28M. PereaF
Substitutes
  • 61J. CaicedoF
  • 14E. CaicedoF
  • 30F. CarabalíD
  • 50J. CusmeD
  • 18J. GonzalezM
  • 52D. MerinoM
  • 23L. LemosM
  • 10F. MinaF
  • 42W. PabónG
Coach: P. Vélez

Form going into Tecnico Universitario vs Mushuc Runa SC

Tecnico Universitario

Liga Pro

  • L1-2away to Deportivo Cuenca16 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Manta FC10 October 2026

Mushuc Runa SC

Liga Pro

  • D1-1Orense SC19 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Delfin SC9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Pro table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Tecnico Universitario36114213549-1437
12Mushuc Runa SC361013134350-743

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Tecnico Universitario vs Mushuc Runa SC

  • 10 August 2026Tecnico Universitario 0–3 Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro
  • 18 April 2026Mushuc Runa SC 1–0 Tecnico UniversitarioLiga Pro
  • 22 November 2025Mushuc Runa SC 1–0 Tecnico UniversitarioLiga Pro
  • 1 November 2025Tecnico Universitario 0–0 Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro
  • 27 July 2025Mushuc Runa SC 0–1 Tecnico UniversitarioLiga Pro
  • 6 April 2025Tecnico Universitario 1–1 Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro

The result against the call

Tecnico Universitario beat Mushuc Runa SC 3–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Mushuc Runa SC at 37% and given a win for Tecnico Universitario 35%. The goals: Bagner Delgado 15' for Tecnico Universitario, Luis Estupiñan 42' for Tecnico Universitario, Diego Armas (penalty) 53' for Tecnico Universitario. Sent off: Freddy Mina (Mushuc Runa SC) 62'. On expected goals it finished 2.46–0.71.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Mushuc Runa SC a 40.8% chance to win the league: 53.3% after a win, 36.5% after a draw, 30.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 30.0%, 10.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Liga Pro season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.