Instituto Cordoba vs Deportivo Riestra Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Instituto Cordoba 1-0 Deportivo Riestra.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Instituto Cordoba, 32% draw, 19% Deportivo Riestra — fair odds of 2.04, 3.13 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published
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Has the model earned this number?
Instituto Cordoba at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Instituto Cordoba vs Deportivo Riestra
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 29M. LedesmaG
- 30J. GalvánD
- 26L. MosevichD
- 6F. AlarcónD
- 2H. De La FuenteM
- 55G. AbregúM
- 15M. GallardoM
- 3D. SosaM
- 21J. LázaroM
- 10A. LunaM
- 17M. TisseraF
- 32A. BravoD
- 44G. CeratoD
- 20J. CórdobaM
- 11M. FonsecaF
- 7N. GuerraF
- 22A. MassaccesiD
- 23J. MeliD
- 13I. MéndezM
- 35E. SittaroG
- 23M. ArzamendiaG
- 24F. MiñoD
- 2C. QuintanaD
- 22C. PazD
- 5P. RamírezM
- 16N. WatsonM
- 8M. CélizM
- 36M. BracamonteM
- 9N. BenegasM
- 40G. ObredorF
- 29M. GranerosF
- 11A. DíazF
- 7Antony Daniel Alonso EspinozaF
- 13R. GalloD
- 6I. GariglioD
- 27J. GoitíaD
- 21T. GonzálezF
- 20T. LauroM
- 12I. LópezG
- 14P. MonjeM
Form going into Instituto Cordoba vs Deportivo Riestra
Instituto Cordoba
Liga Profesional Argentina
- W1-0away to Defensa Y Justicia16 October 2026
- D2-2Boca Juniors9 October 2026
Deportivo Riestra
Liga Profesional Argentina
- D1-1Union Santa Fe20 October 2026
- L0-1away to San Lorenzo11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto Cordoba | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 15 | +11 | 34 |
| 14 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportivo Riestra vs Instituto Cordoba
Deportivo Riestra and Instituto Cordoba have met 7 times in the records we hold, Instituto Cordoba has won 5 of them to Deportivo Riestra's 1, with 1 drawn.
The record
Instituto Cordoba won the last one 1–0 on 27 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Riestra | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 9 |
| Instituto Cordoba | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 3 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 12 goals, an average of 1.71 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 27 Oct 2026
Liga Profesional ArgentinaInstituto Cordoba 1–0 Deportivo Riestra - 11 Apr 2026
Liga Profesional ArgentinaDeportivo Riestra 0–1 Instituto Cordoba - 20 Oct 2025
Liga Profesional ArgentinaDeportivo Riestra 1–0 Instituto Cordoba - 13 Apr 2025
Liga Profesional ArgentinaInstituto Cordoba 3–0 Deportivo Riestra - 1 Dec 2024
Liga Profesional ArgentinaInstituto Cordoba 2–1 Deportivo Riestra - 25 Jan 2024
Copa de la Liga ProfesionalInstituto Cordoba 0–0 Deportivo Riestra - 8 Jun 2023
Copa ArgentinaInstituto Cordoba 2–1 Deportivo Riestra
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Instituto Cordoba's attack rates 87% above Deportivo Riestra's, and the two defences are almost level. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Riestra | 0.53 | 1.22 |
| Instituto Cordoba | 0.99 | 1.22 |
The result against the call
Instituto Cordoba beat Deportivo Riestra 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Instituto Cordoba at 49%. The goal: Jeremías Ezequiel Lázaro (penalty) 84' for Instituto Cordoba. On expected goals it finished 1.93–0.19.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Instituto Cordoba a 71.7% chance to finish top of the Clausura Group A: 87.4% after a win, 59.5% after a draw, 43.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 87.4%, 15.7 points higher than before the match.
For Deportivo Riestra the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 52.8% going in: 18.5% after a win, 49.2% after a draw, 65.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 65.6%, 12.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.