26 October 2026, 00:30 UTC

Barracas Central vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Claudio Fabian Tapia, Barracas
Referee: Andres Merlos
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Barracas Central 2-1 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% Barracas Central, 31% draw, 17% Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto — fair odds of 1.92, 3.23 and 5.88.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Barracas Central at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Barracas Central99%Draw1%Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

17'
🔁M. Valentiout: A. Quiroga
18'
A. Quiroga
27'
🔁M. Valienteout: M. Garnerone
44'
⚽I. Hesar
🔁R. Bogarinout: T. Porra
46'
🔁E. Pereyraout: R. Insua
64'
🔁E. Rolonout: G. Maroni
64'
⚽E. Tabordaassist: T. Porra
66'
67'
G. Maffini
🔁Y. Rakout: N. Capraro
73'
⚽R. Barriosassist: G. Campi
74'
82'
🔁T. Gonzalezout: J. Garro
82'
🔁F. Cobosout: S. Rosane
🔁E. Tabordaout: D. Miloc
86'

Match stats — Barracas Central vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

66%Possession34%
21Shots9
12On target3
12Corners2
1.26xG0.72

Goals against chances

Barracas Central2 from 1.26 xGmore than the chances were worth
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto1 from 0.72 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Barracas Central 4-2-3-1
  • 30M. MinoG
  • 13R. BarriosD
  • 15Y. RakD
  • 37G. CampiD
  • 17E. PereyraD
  • 10I. TapiaM
  • 35E. RolonM
  • 28R. BogarinM
  • 11N. BriascoM
  • 24E. TabordaM
  • 34N. OrsiniF
Substitutes
  • 1J. EspinolaG
  • 4D. MartinezD
  • 2N. CapraroD
  • 33G. MaroniM
  • 8T. PorraM
  • 5D. MilocM
  • 36T. LavezziF
  • 20J. CandiaF
  • 77F. BrueraF
Coach: Damian Ayude
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 3-5-2
  • 38L. HerreraG
  • 2G. MaffiniD
  • 30S. OjedaD
  • 31M. ValentiD
  • 6J. AntoniniM
  • 10T. GonzalezM
  • 5A. CabreraM
  • 17G. AlanisM
  • 28F. CobosM
  • 77I. HesarF
  • 22M. ValienteF
Substitutes
  • 12F. GualiteriG
  • 14G. GonzalezD
  • 3L. BanosD
  • 29A. QuirogaD
  • 8S. RosaneM
  • 24T. EscobarM
  • 27J. GarroF
  • 11M. GarneroneF
  • 4V. FenoglioF
Coach: Ruben Forestello

Form going into Barracas Central vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

Barracas Central

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • D1-1away to Sarmiento Junin19 October 2026
  • W2-0Huracan10 October 2026

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • W2-1Aldosivi18 October 2026
  • L0-1away to River Plate11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Barracas Central167541713+426
15Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto1623111023-139

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Barracas Central vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

  • 12 April 2026Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 1–2 Barracas CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 25 November 2019Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 0–0 Barracas CentralPrimera Nacional

The result against the call

Barracas Central beat Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 2–1. The model had made a win for Barracas Central its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: I. Hesar 44' for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto, E. Taborda 66' for Barracas Central, R. Barrios 74' for Barracas Central. Sent off: G. Maffini (Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto) 67'. On expected goals it finished 1.26–0.72.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Barracas Central a 86.8% chance to finish in the top eight: 97.3% after a win, 79.1% after a draw, 62.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 97.3%, 10.5 points higher than before the match.

For Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 98.4% going in: 92.7% after a win, 99.1% after a draw, 99.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 99.7%, 1.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Barracas Central v Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 54% / 31% / 15% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 52% / 31% / 17%: the biggest move is Barracas Central's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Barracas Central win52%▼ −2
  2. Draw31%=
  3. Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto win17%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.