27 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg Allsvenskan prediction & result

Strawberry Arena, Solna
Referee: Sars Joakim
Full time2 – 2

Final score: AIK Stockholm 2-2 IF Elfsborg.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% AIK Stockholm, 26% draw, 40% IF Elfsborg — fair odds of 2.94, 3.85 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

IF Elfsborg at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AIK Stockholm95%Draw5%IF Elfsborg0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
Ari Sigurpalsson
25'
⚽Julius Magnusson
⚽Johan Hoveassist: axel kouame
44'
🔁Lukas Bergquistout: Mads Thychosen
45'
🔁Linus Carlstrandout: Sixten Gustafsson
62'
🔁Yannick Emilio Geigerout: Dino Beširović
62'
🔁Lucas Assadiout: Taha Ayari
63'
axel kouame
68'
70'
🔁Simon Olssonout: Ossian nordvall
70'
🔁Julius Beckout: Marcus Rohdén
70'
🔁Simon Hedlundout: Momoh Ibrahim Kamara
70'
🔁Ari Sigurpalssonout: Arbër Zeneli
Diogo Tomas
82'
⚽Sixten Gustafssonassist: axel kouame
85'
🔁Wilmer Olofssonout: Fredrik Nissen
85'
87'
🔁Niklas Hultout: Jonathan Esenga
90'
⚽Rasmus Wikströmassist: Alexander Jensen

Match stats — AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg

46%Possession54%
12Shots18
4On target5
2Corners10
0.89xG1.88

Goals against chances

AIK Stockholm2 from 0.89 xGmore than the chances were worth
IF Elfsborg2 from 1.88 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

AIK Stockholm 4-4-2
  • 15K. NordfeldtG
  • 2E. EdhD
  • 33D. TomasD
  • 34W. OlofssonD
  • 5L. BergquistD
  • 48A. KouameM
  • 18A. AliM
  • 46Yannick GeigerM
  • 10L. AssadiM
  • 9L. CarlstrandF
  • 8J. HoveF
Substitutes
  • 28L. JäretegM
  • 30K. JoelssonG
  • 45T. AyariM
  • 19D. BeširovićM
  • 6M. EllingsenM
  • 16Sixten GustafssonF
  • 14F. NissenD
  • 17M. ThychosenD
  • 21S. WilsonM
Coach: Jose Riveiro
IF Elfsborg 4-2-3-1
  • 12T. SanderG
  • 16A. JensenD
  • 6R. WikströmD
  • 4T. IsherwoodD
  • 23N. HultD
  • 18J. MagnússonM
  • 10S. OlssonM
  • 25A. SigurpálssonM
  • 19J. BeckM
  • 15S. HedlundM
  • 21L. ÖstmanF
Substitutes
  • 22D. KrasniqiF
  • 5O. NordvallM
  • 31I. PetterssonG
  • 7M. RohdénM
  • 11T. SilverholtF
  • 9A. ZeneliM
  • 8S. HolménD
  • 29M. KamaraM
  • 3J. EsengaD
Coach: Björn Hamberg

Form going into AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg

AIK Stockholm

Allsvenskan

  • W2-1away to Sirius24 October 2026
  • D2-2IFK Goteborg17 October 2026

IF Elfsborg

Allsvenskan

  • D0-0Malmo FF23 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Sirius18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8AIK Stockholm2811894649-341
5IF Elfsborg28121064231+1146

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg

  • 3 May 2026IF Elfsborg 1–1 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
  • 21 March 2026IF Elfsborg 3–2 AIK StockholmFriendlies Clubs
  • 2 November 2025IF Elfsborg 0–3 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
  • 27 April 2025AIK Stockholm 2–0 IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan
  • 27 October 2024AIK Stockholm 2–1 IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan
  • 15 May 2024IF Elfsborg 6–1 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan

Leading scorers: AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg

AIK Stockholm

GoalsAssists

  • J. Hove113

IF Elfsborg

GoalsAssists

  • L. Östman112

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for IF Elfsborg at 40% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Julius Magnusson 25' for IF Elfsborg, Johan Hove 44' for AIK Stockholm, Sixten Gustafsson 85' for AIK Stockholm, Rasmus Wikström 90' for IF Elfsborg. On expected goals it finished 0.89–1.88.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave IF Elfsborg a 2.0% chance to finish in the top three: 3.7% after a win, 1.0% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 1.0%, 1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Allsvenskan season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on AIK Stockholm v IF Elfsborg has moved

First published on 13 Oct at 32% / 26% / 42% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 34% / 26% / 40%: the biggest move is AIK Stockholm's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. AIK Stockholm win34%▲ +2
  2. Draw26%=
  3. IF Elfsborg win40%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.