28 October 2026, 19:45 UTC

Bournemouth vs Aston Villa League Cup prediction & result

Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth
Referee: T. Harrington
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Bournemouth 3-0 Aston Villa.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Bournemouth, 26% draw, 33% Aston Villa — fair odds of 2.44, 3.85 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

Bournemouth at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bournemouth99%Draw1%Aston Villa0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Amine Adliassist: Julio Soler
7'
12'
Emiliano Buendía
Juanlu Sánchez
16'
Ben Gannon-Doak
25'
33'
Brian Madjo
🔁Marcus Tavernierout: Justin Kluivert
45'
🔁Amine Adliout: Rayan Vitor Simplício Rocha
45'
⚽Lewis Cookassist: Ben Gannon-Doak
51'
54'
João Gomes
58'
🔁George Hemmingsout: Alejandro Garnacho
58'
🔁Ibrahim Mbayeout: Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha
🔁Ben Gannon-Doakout: David Brooks
63'
🔁Ryan Christieout: Tyler Adams
63'
Lewis Cook
67'
⚽Álvaro Rodríguezassist: Tyler Adams
69'
70'
🔁Emiliano Buendíaout: Ross Barkley
70'
🔁Leon Goretzkaout: John McGinn
75'
🔁Brian Madjoout: Tammy Abraham
🔁Álvaro Rodríguezout: Eli Kroupi
80'

Match stats — Bournemouth vs Aston Villa

49%Possession51%
19Shots17
7On target5
6Corners2
2.75xG1.67

Goals against chances

Bournemouth3 from 2.75 xGabout what the chances were worth
Aston Villa0 from 1.67 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Bournemouth 4-1-4-1
  • 20M. Di GregorioG
  • 24Juanlu SánchezD
  • 18B. DiakitéD
  • 14António SilvaD
  • 6J. SolerD
  • 4L. CookM
  • 11B. DoakM
  • 16M. TavernierM
  • 10R. ChristieM
  • 21A. AdliM
  • 30Á. RodríguezF
Substitutes
  • 12T. AdamsM
  • 7D. BrooksM
  • 5J. HillD
  • 19J. KluivertF
  • 22E. KroupiF
  • 1Đ. PetrovićG
  • 37RayanF
  • 15A. SmithD
  • 3A. TruffertD
Coach: M. Rose
Aston Villa 4-2-3-1
  • 40M. BizotG
  • 26L. BogardeD
  • 4T. Harwood-BellisD
  • 5T. MingsD
  • 22I. MaatsenD
  • 35João GomesM
  • 27L. GoretzkaM
  • 19I. MbayeM
  • 10E. BuendíaM
  • 53George HemmingsM
  • 39Brian MadjoF
Substitutes
  • 47Alysson EdwardF
  • 18T. AbrahamF
  • 6R. BarkleyM
  • 2M. CashD
  • 48M. CisséD
  • 17A. GarnachoF
  • 8B. KamaraM
  • 7J. McGinnM
  • 1Z. SuzukiG
Coach: Unai Emery

Form going into Bournemouth vs Aston Villa

Bournemouth

All competitions we cover

  • W3-0away to Manchester United25 October 2026
  • W3-0AC Milan22 October 2026
  • W2-0Sunderland18 October 2026
  • W3-0Sturm Graz15 October 2026
  • L1-5away to Chelsea10 October 2026

Aston Villa

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Manchester City24 October 2026
  • W3-1Viking21 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Newcastle17 October 2026
  • W6-0Fenerbahçe14 October 2026
  • D2-2Brentford10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Bournemouth scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Bournemouth won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Bournemouth kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Aston Villa went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Aston Villa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Aston Villa won 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Aston Villa vs Bournemouth

Aston Villa and Bournemouth have met 7 times in the records we hold, Aston Villa has won 3 of them to Bournemouth's 1, with 3 drawn.

The record

Bournemouth won the last one 3–0 on 28 Oct 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
Aston Villa331128
Bournemouth133812

Between them these 7 meetings produced 20 goals, an average of 2.86 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 28 Oct 2026
    League Cup    Bournemouth 3–0 Aston Villa
  • 7 Feb 2026
    Premier League    Bournemouth 1–1 Aston Villa
  • 9 Nov 2025
    Premier League    Aston Villa 4–0 Bournemouth
  • 10 May 2025
    Premier League    Bournemouth 0–1 Aston Villa
  • 26 Oct 2024
    Premier League    Aston Villa 1–1 Bournemouth
  • 21 Apr 2024
    Premier League    Aston Villa 3–1 Bournemouth
  • 3 Dec 2023
    Premier League    Bournemouth 2–2 Aston Villa

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Aston Villa's attack rates 16% above Bournemouth's, and Bournemouth concede 8% fewer than Aston Villa. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
Aston Villa1.360.97
Bournemouth1.170.89

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

The result against the call

Bournemouth beat Aston Villa 3–0. The model had made a win for Bournemouth its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Amine Adli 7' for Bournemouth, Lewis Cook 51' for Bournemouth, Álvaro Rodríguez 69' for Bournemouth. On expected goals it finished 2.75–1.67.

How the call on Bournemouth v Aston Villa has moved

First published on 14 Oct at 39% / 26% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 41% / 26% / 33%: the biggest move is Bournemouth's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Bournemouth win41%▲ +2
  2. Draw26%=
  3. Aston Villa win33%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.